Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Out of the woodwork ...

I'm always amazed how propagandists are invited for interviews in MSM under de disguise of a "think-tank" and the premise these agents have anything worthwhile to tell.

In a coverage about Georgia on Al Jazeera and the disputed territories of South Osetia, Abkhazia, Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, a fellow from the Henry Jackson Society of London was invited. His name ... Alan Madison. A quick Google got an immediate hit!!

Repeatedly I have written about HJS @BooMan and here @EuroTrib ...

Counterinsurgency Cyberwarfare NATO vs. Russia - Part 3
Legatum: the Brexiteers' favourite think tank. Who is behind them?

A reminder of Colman's warning many moons ago ...

Neocons sighted on the Thames

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Sun Jul 14th, 2019 at 01:43:59 PM EST
These people still can't get their heads around Ireland being an independent country and having found a new place in the world especially over the past 30 years thanks to the EU.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 14th, 2019 at 09:41:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well we are a small country which they have "successfully" divided and conquered before. Brexiteers thought similarly about the EU - an ineffectual bureaucracy which it would be easy to divide and conquer. So it is more than a little irritating that Ireland has (in their view) successfully hidden behind the EU negotiating team, got its core national interests embedded in the EU negotiating position, and has so far avoided being winkled out and confronted with the might and power of Great Britain.

Of course "common sense" would dictate that Ireland - as the weakest link - will quickly fold when confronted by the consequences of a no deal Brexit - consequences which are possibly as severe as those facing the UK economically, and possibly even more severe politically if N. Ireland becomes unstable again.

The weakness of the Irish government's position is that a no deal Brexit would precipitate precisely the consequence the backstop was meant to avoid - a hard border with N. Ireland. Some in Ireland are already arguing that this means the backstop must be watered down in order to void a hard border.

But would the EU allow Ireland to back down now, as this would undermine the entire EU negotiating position and make it much harder to prevent the UK from achieving the benefits of CUSM membership - without any of the concomitant costs in subsequent negotiations?

If I were an EU leader speaking to Varadker now, I would be saying "we went out on a limb and backed you to the hilt, don't chicken out now and leave us all with egg on our faces". The prime EU objective is to secure the integrity of the CUSM, and not allow the UK to use the border issue to slip in by the back door and essentially gain all the benefits of membership and still control immigration, negotiate its own FTAs, and  undermine the regulatory regime which underpins it.

So my view is that, for better or worse, Ireland and the EU are stuck with the backstop, and if achieving "an orderly withdrawal" for the UK from the EU requires waiting until the DUP veto is no more, then so be it.

The really difficult negotiations with the UK have not even begun. The UK will start of the "future relationship" negotiations from the position of expecting all the benefits of the CUSM with none of the costs - certainly not Norway style contributions to the EU budget - never mentioned in UK debates about the Norway option - and freedom to trade with the rest of the world on its own terms.

Perhaps the best way of disabusing the UK of such notions is a period of Brexit with no deal, with high tariff and non-tariff barriers and no mutual recognition over landing rights, pharmaceutical standards or financial services. Then the UK will be starting off the negotiations from the same place as any third party without an FTA, not as a departing member claiming a right to the same benefits as before.

If that is the EU strategy then Ireland will need a period of "understanding" that enforcement of CUSM rules cannot be perfect and will have to be phased in over time. It remains to be seen whether that understanding will be forthcoming from the new Commission, and whether Varadker has managed to secure any private assurances on that score. The transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement would have brought us to the next UK government in all probability not dependent on the DUP. Now we may have to achieve the same goal without a formal transition period.

I wouldn't be too worried about the Irish economy in the meantime - we are near full employment and in danger of overheating now. But 50% tariffs on beef and similar exports would kill the agricultural industry and finding alternative markets will not be easy. The Mercosur deal may have to wait...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jul 14th, 2019 at 10:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This propagandist is Alan Mendoza, btw.

If we're tempted to think he's so ignorant he should shut up, we should note that he has BA, MPhil, DPhil in history from Cambridge. In other words, he's perfectly well-informed and trained enough to know that he's spouting... propaganda.

The more outrageous it is, the more clicks it gets.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Jul 15th, 2019 at 09:01:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
😊 well compensated I presume ... JHS is one horrible institution.

In Colman's diary he linked to a webpage of JHS patrons of 2005. That page can't be found, however WayBackMachine archive should have it. I will find link that explains its founding.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Jul 15th, 2019 at 09:19:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Jul 15th, 2019 at 09:21:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
can't access that link...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 15th, 2019 at 10:15:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was traveling, so I couldn/t embed link and a "/" became html code for italics  ...

Embedded link:

International Patrons of The Henry Jackson Society - 2005

Bruce P. Jackson
President of the Project for Transitional Democracies

Robert Kagan
Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

William Kristol
Editor, The Weekly Standard

Vytautas Landsbergis
Former President of Lithuania

Michael McFaul
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Senior Advisor, National Democratic Institute

Joshua Muravchik
Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute

Richard Perle
Former American Assistant Secretary of Defence

General Jack Sheehan
Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Atlantic

James Woolsey
Former Director of the CIA

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Jul 15th, 2019 at 11:26:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bruce P. Jackson (Wikipedia)

Post-Communist Europe Relations

A long-time proponent of NATO expansion, Jackson was instrumental in securing U.S. Senate ratification of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary as members of NATO and organizing the second "Vilnius Round" of NATO expansion which brought the Baltic States, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria into both NATO and the European Union. Since 2002, he has been active in the Balkans and post-Soviet democracies advocating democratic reform and EU accession.

Loosely translated: a Neocon a$$hole

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Jul 15th, 2019 at 11:33:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Quite a rogues' gallery.  In a just world, they'd all be in The Hague for crimes against humanity.
by rifek on Thu Jul 18th, 2019 at 07:55:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Senator from Boeing.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 19th, 2019 at 03:52:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Although Scoop inherited that title from Maggie.
by rifek on Fri Jul 19th, 2019 at 06:37:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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