Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I was watching a late night horror film politics show on BBC where the host was interviewing representatives of Hunt and Johnston.

As each contradicted himself while presenting unicorns and rainbows as solutions to real world urgencies, the presenter was tired of trying to get them to confront the contradictions and ended the interview almost physically restraining herself from telling the pair of them what she thought of their idiocies in plain language. At one point I felt that actual on-screen physical violence was likely such was the provocation. I think she deserved a medal for restraint.

However, it made me realise that, as unlikely as it may seem, Boris is unlikely to want to have a no-deal scenario. If only for the reason that he is famously lazy and sorting out the issues afterwards would be too much like hard work.

So, the question then is what is the rbbit he would pull from the hat, to which I return to the obvious and easy answer of making Ulster stay in the customs union, removing the need for the hated backstop.

This enables May's deal to sail through parliament, Hail to boris and trebles all round. He can bask in the glory with almost no work. Go to the country and win a General Election for delivering on the people's vote (he hopes)

This flies because May was far too dependent on her deal with the DUP, but there was ALWAYS support for her deal on the Labour benches, but never showed itself because the tories were too solidly against the backstop. Take that away and .....

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 03:55:44 PM EST
That has been blindingly obvious for a while, but May was too much of an ideological unionist and captured DUP automaton to see it. If Boris reduces the all UK backstop to an N. Ireland only backstop, everyone (bar the DUP) is happy. They can either provoke a General election and risk Corbyn or they can suck it up. Even if Boris wins the election he will campaign on a N.I. only backstop.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 05:35:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fer sure Boris only played the bad boy who was just gonna crash the country out and give the EU two fingers instead of the £39bn, because he's campaigning for the votes of a tiny number of aged swivel-eyed cretins in the Home Counties. It's not a platform that would win him a general election.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 06:44:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not a platform that would win him a general election.

Seems to me with the SNP snapping-up Scottish seats it's 50/50 if Labour has the votes to win enough seats - the goal, after all - in a General Election.  In a FPTP system it is possible the Tories could lose the popular vote but retain enough seats to form a government.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 09:10:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's possible the Tories could get a very small percentage of the vote and still form a government. The outcome of any election on those numbers in a FPTP system depends entirely on pacts about who stands where.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 10:58:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is inherent in the election just being among Tory Party leaders. Talk about democratic deficits.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 09:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is the backstop really the only thing keeping May's deal from being accepted? Or is it only the lowest hanging fruit for opponents, who can list other objections if that one is magically resolved...
by asdf on Sun Jul 7th, 2019 at 01:52:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Jul 7th, 2019 at 03:19:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the beginning, it was the only thing all sorts of people who opposed the deal for different reasons could agree on, so they coalesced around that. Had the backstop been stripped out then, all the other objections would doubtless have emerged.

However in the meantime the realisation has gradually sunk in that the agreement is not negotiable as far as the EU is concerned, and the best they can hope for is that the backstop is somehow magically removed or modified.

The reality of a no deal Brexit has now also begun the sink in, and not just as a negotiating ploy: so now those desperate for a deal are willing to accept perhaps just one face saving change to enable them to back a deal they previously opposed.

So if Boris can pull a rabbit out of the hat - say a NI only backstop - the vast majority would happily embrace it. The problem is there may not be enough rogue Labour votes to pass it in the absence of DUP and some Tory hardliner support.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 8th, 2019 at 01:31:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Occasional Series