Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

And incidently YouGov (not my favourite pollster) has a new poll out showing the Tories (24%) in the Lead and Labour in fourth place (18%) behind Brexit party (23%) and Lib Dems (20%)...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 08:46:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour's Brexit fate may well become a case study in the dangers of sitting on the fence or trying to plah both sides.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 03:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour lost Scotland to the SNP and haven't recouped enough - any? - votes in England and Wales.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 05:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour picked up 3,5 million more votes in 2017 than 2015, getting more votes than in any general election since 1997. The thing is that under Blair election participation dropped like a stone from mid 70ies before Blair to around 60, and it still haven't broken 70 again.

Looking at that hilarious BBC documentary about 2017 that Helen linked at the time, it appeared that it was an increase among traditional non-voters in urban areas, while Labour also lost suburban votes to the Tories. I suspect Labour can win by getting new voters to the polls in England and Wales, even if SNP holds Scotland. Doesn't mean that they will, but I think they can.

by fjallstrom on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 06:45:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 Kezia Dugdale in more ways than one, twice, quit Labour in Scotland.
In the recent European elections, Scottish Labour failed to win a single seat. Finishing in fifth place, the party lost both of the MEPs it had returned in 2014. Asked how politics and the Labour Party compare to when she first entered Parliament, Dugdale responds that they are "categorically worse on both counts".
Who has replaced her? Richard Leonard, who backed BREXIT back in February with Corbyn logic likewise ill-timed. Next general election scheduled 2021, probability of Labour gains in Holyrood by snap election zero. Labour has no more institutional or disaffected preference voters to tap.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 07:58:43 PM EST
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"Getting new voters to the polls" is almost always a pipe dream.  Obama managed it in 2008. I doubt Corbyn has that kind of star power/drawing power.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Jul 5th, 2019 at 08:57:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But he already did. One and a half million more voted in 2017 than in 2015, and considering that the Tories increased less than UKIP decreased, and the only other major party that increased was Labour, I think it is a safe guess that Corbyn brought them out. Absent actual studies, of course.
by fjallstrom on Fri Jul 5th, 2019 at 11:19:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But not in Scotland, it appears.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 02:47:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed, in Scotland Labour got essentially the same number of votes as in 2015. They increased their number of seats because SNP lost half a million -a third of their votes - (to the Tories and to not voting), which lost SNP seats. In Scotland participation went down.

I believe I have heard that Scottish Labour is a Blairite stronghold, but I don't know if that played in. The main story in Scotland is probably related to SNP. Disappointment over lack of results after their strong 2015 result?

In England and Wales Labour increased by three and a half million votes. Greens in England and Wales lost half a million, so if we assume that those went to Labour, the rest comes from UKIP and non voters.

The numbers are from Wikipedia, where I fail to find any analysis of flows (there can be flows both to and from non voters that are obscured in the aggregated numbers). UKIP lost 3,3 million votes (in UK) and Tories increased by 2,3 million (in UK). Thinking about it, if a large portion of the Labour increase was from UKIP, it could explain the hesitancy to go against Brexit, rather than criticize the Tories handling of it.

by fjallstrom on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 03:07:15 PM EST
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It Will be interesting to see if Lib-dems and Brexit party manages to stay around twenty after the summer. There is likely still a bit of post-election bounce going on.
by fjallstrom on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 06:27:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The most recent polls have Labour leading, and the LDs trailing at the rear.

The YouGov polls have a consistent history of underestimating Labour support.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jul 7th, 2019 at 05:07:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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