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No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) | 52 comments (52 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (4.00 / 3)
My apologies for rescuing an old diary. I had started writing a new diary on what no deal might look like when I realised I had said it all before, and it seemed remarkable how little had changed in the meantime. Can the UK really be stuck in a time warp? Nothing seems to be coming from nothing...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 10:17:14 AM EST
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 1)
Nothing is happening because the EU has been validating the UK's psychosis -- loss of contact with reality.  The UK, in parliament, thinks they can reject the negotiated agree AND rule out No Deal and this will force the EU to accede to letting the UK have all the rights, benefits, and privileges of EU membership without the responsibilities, duties, and costs of EU membership. The EU has actually done, as opposed to yakity-yak, nothing to disabuse them of this notion.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 03:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 0)
What would you suggest? Invasion and forcible annexion?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 04:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 1)
Why not? I've just read Saki's When William came, and it sounds like it would be a big improvement.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 04:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Saki (none / 0)
Thanks for that. I'm sick of reading SCOTUS opinions and research lit on MS (not that one, the other one).

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 06:35:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 1)
Of course not.  

The UK wants out.  Give them what they want.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 09:04:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (4.00 / 2)
The Tories want out. Most of the UK no longer supports them.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 09:29:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 0)
Well, that's a problem for the UK to solve then.
by IdiotSavant on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 03:34:18 AM EST
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Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 0)
Does this include all the people who want out so bad that they support Nigel Farage over the Tory party?


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 07:52:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 0)
Yes.

And incidently YouGov (not my favourite pollster) has a new poll out showing the Tories (24%) in the Lead and Labour in fourth place (18%) behind Brexit party (23%) and Lib Dems (20%)...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 08:46:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 0)
Labour's Brexit fate may well become a case study in the dangers of sitting on the fence or trying to plah both sides.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 03:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 0)
Labour lost Scotland to the SNP and haven't recouped enough - any? - votes in England and Wales.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 05:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 1)
Labour picked up 3,5 million more votes in 2017 than 2015, getting more votes than in any general election since 1997. The thing is that under Blair election participation dropped like a stone from mid 70ies before Blair to around 60, and it still haven't broken 70 again.

Looking at that hilarious BBC documentary about 2017 that Helen linked at the time, it appeared that it was an increase among traditional non-voters in urban areas, while Labour also lost suburban votes to the Tories. I suspect Labour can win by getting new voters to the polls in England and Wales, even if SNP holds Scotland. Doesn't mean that they will, but I think they can.

by fjallstrom on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 06:45:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 0)
 Kezia Dugdale in more ways than one, twice, quit Labour in Scotland.
In the recent European elections, Scottish Labour failed to win a single seat. Finishing in fifth place, the party lost both of the MEPs it had returned in 2014. Asked how politics and the Labour Party compare to when she first entered Parliament, Dugdale responds that they are "categorically worse on both counts".
Who has replaced her? Richard Leonard, who backed BREXIT back in February with Corbyn logic likewise ill-timed. Next general election scheduled 2021, probability of Labour gains in Holyrood by snap election zero. Labour has no more institutional or disaffected preference voters to tap.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 07:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 1)
"Getting new voters to the polls" is almost always a pipe dream.  Obama managed it in 2008. I doubt Corbyn has that kind of star power/drawing power.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Jul 5th, 2019 at 08:57:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (4.00 / 2)
But he already did. One and a half million more voted in 2017 than in 2015, and considering that the Tories increased less than UKIP decreased, and the only other major party that increased was Labour, I think it is a safe guess that Corbyn brought them out. Absent actual studies, of course.
by fjallstrom on Fri Jul 5th, 2019 at 11:19:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 1)
But not in Scotland, it appears.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 02:47:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (4.00 / 2)
Indeed, in Scotland Labour got essentially the same number of votes as in 2015. They increased their number of seats because SNP lost half a million -a third of their votes - (to the Tories and to not voting), which lost SNP seats. In Scotland participation went down.

I believe I have heard that Scottish Labour is a Blairite stronghold, but I don't know if that played in. The main story in Scotland is probably related to SNP. Disappointment over lack of results after their strong 2015 result?

In England and Wales Labour increased by three and a half million votes. Greens in England and Wales lost half a million, so if we assume that those went to Labour, the rest comes from UKIP and non voters.

The numbers are from Wikipedia, where I fail to find any analysis of flows (there can be flows both to and from non voters that are obscured in the aggregated numbers). UKIP lost 3,3 million votes (in UK) and Tories increased by 2,3 million (in UK). Thinking about it, if a large portion of the Labour increase was from UKIP, it could explain the hesitancy to go against Brexit, rather than criticize the Tories handling of it.

by fjallstrom on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 03:07:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 1)
It Will be interesting to see if Lib-dems and Brexit party manages to stay around twenty after the summer. There is likely still a bit of post-election bounce going on.
by fjallstrom on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 06:27:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 1)
The most recent polls have Labour leading, and the LDs trailing at the rear.

The YouGov polls have a consistent history of underestimating Labour support.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jul 7th, 2019 at 05:07:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (none / 0)
The EU has actually done, as opposed to yakity-yak, nothing to disabuse them of this notion

I would argue that the whole negotiation has been one slow, lengthy, process of disabusing the UK of the notion that they can have their cake and eat it to the point where now the only remaining point of contention is the Irish backstop.

Expectations have been reduced to the point where many in the UK are desperate for a deal, any deal, even May's deal, if only some face-saving concessions can be agreed to enable BoJo to claim his deal is better.

Labour, too, are finding it difficult to articulate what they would do to improve the deal other than platitudes about protecting jobs, workers rights and the environment - aspirations all of which can be accommodated within the accompanying political declaration.

The no-deal non-policy is the last, failing, attempt to proclaim the UK as special, needing no one else, able to take its place in the world alone (with a helping hand from Trump). It's the end of the road for the empire, and all but the no-dealers know it.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 10:25:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"some face-saving" (none / 0)
To the contrary, an exhibition of humility is precisely the "face" that the next PM ought to present to the world.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Jul 3rd, 2019 at 11:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "some face-saving" (none / 0)
To the contrary of what?

I'm sure BoJo can do humility, but it doesn't appear to be his strong suit...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 08:48:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"contrary of what" (none / 1)
Offering "face saving" to Johnson --in exchange for ratification of the EU Withdrawal Agreement or, especially, restoration of unqualified EU membership by the act of A.50 revocation-- confounds (1) terms of agreement and (2) commitment to membership as peer.

What "face" of UK gov merits saving anyway?
The exceptional industry of the people with respect to all others appears uncontested. Perhaps you have found some indication that they fear for anyone but themselves.

Observers the world over of BREXIT pilgrims recognize in  tory progress toward sovereignty a concomitant reluctance to clip imperial ambition. Perhaps the attitude of moral superiority with which UK delegates approach members is no affront but welcome aspect in society. Surely the niggardly disposition of UK gov toward its "homeland" constituencies, dependencies, protectorates, and Overseas Territories expresses common courtesy. Conversely, appreciation for dishonesty in discourse will perfect the status of everyone.

Tell us how corespondents of tory government should ease regrets and transgressions of figures, known and unknown, who are demonstrably incapable of accepting responsibility for and responsibility to much less forgiveness?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Jul 5th, 2019 at 01:17:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DICTION CORNER (none / 1)
humility

Why are concepts of face expressed by East Asian customs incongruous to concepts of dignity, prestige, or etiquette accorded Western traditions?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Jul 5th, 2019 at 01:39:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "contrary of what" (none / 1)
I started writing a response to your comment, but it became a a diary

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 03:02:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) (4.00 / 3)
No-deal is the last refuge for the unicorns: there is no acceptable Brexit policy once you detail it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jul 4th, 2019 at 10:57:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No Deal Means No deal (Reprise) | 52 comments (52 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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