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Might de Pheffel have two brick walls to encounter?   (Guardian)

A lot depends on whether the Trump administraton can maintain that it has expedited authority to negotiate trade deals and that this authority includes any new deal with the UK. I don't know what that status is at present, but, with the Irish Question at the fore, Trump would find it hard to get such authority over the opposition of the Friends of Ireland caucus.

Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border and jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland, congressional leaders and diplomats have warned.

Boris Johnson has presented a trade deal with the US as a way of offsetting the economic costs of leaving the EU, and Donald Trump promised the two countries could strike "a very substantial trade agreement" that would increase trade "four or five times".

Trump, however, would not be able to push an agreement through a hostile Congress, where there would be strong bipartisan opposition to any UK trade deal in the event of a threat to the 1998 Good Friday agreement, and to the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.


Details of the opposition:
"The American dimension to the Good Friday agreement is indispensable," said Richard Neal, who is co-chair of the 54-strong Friends of Ireland caucus in Congress, and also chairs the powerful House ways and means committee, with the power to hold up a trade deal indefinitely.

"We oversee all trade agreements as part of our tax jurisdiction," Neal, a Democratic congressman from Massachusetts, said in a phone interview. He pointed out that such a complex trade deal could take four or five years, even without the Northern Ireland issue.

"I would have little enthusiasm for entertaining a bilateral trade agreement with the UK, if they were to jeopardise the agreement."

Pete King, the Republican co-chair of the Friends of Ireland group, said the threat to abandon the backstop and endanger the open border was a "needless provocation", adding that his party would have no compunction about defying Trump over the issue.

"I would think anyone who has a strong belief in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday agreement the open border would certainly be willing to go against the president," King said.

At the very least this might add uncertainty to the prospect of a quick bilateral trade agreement. And, in any case, such an agreement is highly unlikely until after 2020, when any authority Trump might now have on trade would likely expire.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 31st, 2019 at 10:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I also doubt that Trump will have much appetite for antagonising the Irish community at large, at least before the election. He appears dedicated to infuriating African-Americans, considering no doubt that their vote is lost to him anyway. But the Irish, not so sure.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 05:55:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Numerically, Trump's squad has been very Irish.
by das monde on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 06:41:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not only that, but, much as it shames me to admit it, the Irish American vote has been trending increasingly Republican, and even Trumpista in recent years. It is also possibly the most organised national lobby in the USA after the Zionists. AFAIK Hispanics don't tend to lobby for Spain, or Afro-Americans for African states, but the Irish lobby takes an active interest in Irish affairs and lobby accordingly.

Hence St. Patrick's day parades and White House ceremonials are one of the most important days on the US Political calendar. The English "special relationship" with the USA, on the other hand, is more of an elite and ideological thing, and thus doesn't have as much heft at the polling booths. During the Troubles, UK Diplomats regularly expressed frustration with their inability to prevent Gerry Adams et al fund-raising in the USA, and even having access to the White House.

I don't know enough about US political demographics to be definitive, but I suspect the Irish American vote was pivotal in enabling Trump win key swing States. His current net approval ratings in states he carried in 2016 are Pennsylvania (-7), Wisconsin (-13), Michigan (-12), Iowa (-12), North Carolina (-4), and Florida (0). Many of these states also have heavy concentrations of Americans claiming Irish roots:

In total 36M Americans claim Irish ancestry compared to 27M who claim English, but the English are predominately not located in Swing states.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 09:33:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shame on you for posting that spurious representation of US origin stories, when the map supplied with the article suffices to illustrate purported approval of the current executive racist.

Morning Consult interactive map of survey responses (2017-2019), published with Business Insider [!], "Trump's approval rating is underwater in 8 major 2020 battleground states, and it's a troubling sign for his reelection prospects"

Let me put some useless, self-aggrandizing historicism in perspective. When, I was young and attending a venerable private day-school in Grosse Pointe Shores, MI, my 6th grade Social Studies teacher (for we now observed classroom periods in prep for high school) assigned his class of 22 personal genealogy. We were to report an oral narrative, family portraiture, and authentic or imaginary heraldic shield.

More or less, on the due date, one in 3 claimed origin by Mayflower transport and 2 in 3 descendance from Ireland, Scotland, France, Germany, wholly or in part, combined at least one Cherokee antecedent. The whole junior high school cohort numbered about 300, of which I was one of 4 who fit neither pattern for reasons that should be crystal fucking clear.

I bear this in mind to this day in order to reiterate. In the decades since I'm hardly surprised to find at least two in any room, claiming a union of pilgrims with Irish and Cherokee grannies for their totems. In the absence of contradictory narratives (which the "central registry" stores), US people change wardrobe by phase of the moon and wind velocity. Which is to say, where the "Irish" are isn't on a map of this federal-republic or Andrew Jackson's grisly militias, 1812-1845

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 07:43:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But if Frank is right about the influence on voting patterns, all that matters is that they think they are Irish. Whether they are really Irish or not doesn't matter.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 10:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank has forgotten all about "Anglo Disease". Mission accomplished.

In the US HH income and wealth "influences" candidates. State electoral administration proscribes "voter patterns". (When's the last time Irish-Americans litigated voting rights as a class?) HH income and wealth predicts voter preference for a candidate  regardless of party affiliation or country of origin. That trait is only captured by Census and Dept. of State instruments from noncitizens/"lawfully" resident aliens. They cannot vote.

That "ancestry" map appears quite the exploit of expanded "race or ethnicity" queries first introduced to C2000 self-reporting. There's no telling if this source/"estimate" is original or derivative work product. It's been scrubbed. Rlly?

19,094,109 Americans are found mostly in the South East (people select this ancestry either as a political statement or because their pre-American [?!] ancestry is uncertain).

Self-perception of moribund "nationality", e.g. Scotch-Irish, among US persons of European persuasion is dubious. That was demonstrated quite dramatically by a 23&Me DNA population report, iirc, 2014, 2015. I shared a true story to demo: immigrant entry in the US is the basis of political status.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 02:18:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Him.

He's a Class-A dick whose parochial racism (Albany -  NYC) and national scheming has only recently been somewhat moderated by age (75) and competition for market making, confounded by ignorant MSM elevation of the piker Steve KING (IA-4, FFS) to ignominy.

Long Island (R), NY-2, cradle to grave of my own dearly departed Robert, issue of Hard (G5) and Quinn (G2). King and his fraternal twin Schumer (formerly NY-16, "Five Towns") are heirs of master opportunist D'Amato (R).

MSM is no guide to the network of gangster intrigues and smug fraternal orders, bundling LI.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 06:00:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I forgot to say, there is no "opposition" to Trump. To paraphrase an insult, MSM quibbles about price.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 06:03:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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