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If a pleasant and gradual reduction in fossil energy is the strategy, it will have to also include large negative emissions technology.

Delay in Dealing with climate change.

by asdf on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 05:18:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
1 point for recognizing concept and (implied) values of externality in economic doctrine.

1 point for adding that barrier to ideation of GAAP doctrine (double-entry real number Q).

0 points for displacing the goal of the state: eliminating fossil fuel production by private firms.

Let's note the unstated assumption: Public interest is identical to private interest. This assumption is deeply, ironically ingrained in utilitarian ("neoliberal") economic rationales for legislative acts. This assumption is not true --especially in the USA-- wherever litigation of commercial business occur. Hence gmoke's disappointment with HLS "expert" testimony and spatic revivals of undead market failure literature examining quantitative, not qualitative, factors of "unmet demand."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 01:44:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Public interest is identical to private interest."
A modern competition [sic] policy. The economy ministers of Poland, France and Germany, met in Poznan on Thursday to discuss EU competition rules. Following the Alstom-Siemens failed merger, the three countries said the EU should be more flexible when it comes to mergers in the EU in order to compete with China [for WHAT? WHY?].

In a joint paper, the countries said the EU Commission [!] should take into account [!] competition at global level but also ensure that the "political demands from the Council [!] are heard". (EURACTIV.fr

Unpack payment (type ±) between the state and firms from process (firm competition) for (WHAT?). Then determine WHO? owns WHAT? --exclusivity of property "rights".

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 05:02:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to fossil fuel producers

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Jul 6th, 2019 at 05:05:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Carbon drawdown resources:
 http://drawdown.org - 100 methods of carbon drawdown and Drawdown 2.0 is said to be on the way
https://www.crcpress.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestr ation/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392 - probably the first peer-reviewed text on geotherapy, using existing ecological systems to repair the damage homo sap sap (the sap) has done
http://bio4climate.org - conference proceedings on a variety of different methods of geotherapy including not only soil carbon sequestration but freshwater and ocean geotherapies and biodiversity strategies
http://soil4climate.org - specifically on soil sequestration with a focus on grasslands and grazing to draw carbon out of the sky

Solar IS Civil Defense
by gmoke on Sun Jul 7th, 2019 at 12:58:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you for reminding your readers, again, of GHG emission mitigation and alternative technologies which do not enjoy the full faith and credit of governments' subsidy awards. Episodic reporting over the years remains instructive in this respect.

WHICH candidates merit priority of services diverted from fossil fuel producers' transfer payments is the topic of another article.

POINT OF ORDER: agreement on the proposition, eliminate subsidy of fossil fuel production, is a prerequisite for alternative gov policy goal and admin of public interest.

If this comment section is indicative of prevailing cost aversion ...

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Jul 7th, 2019 at 06:16:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Jul 9th, 2019 at 04:08:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It IS 2019 and monumental sequestration IS already a dire necessity. I recommended 5 and 10 year timelines because that is the minimum likely required to perform the transition. I do not see accomplishing those goals to be either plesant or graual. I just hope they are technically feasible. Outlawing fossil fuel after 2021 would just crash the economy. By 2026 it could be feasible if we have built enough renewable infrastructure. That would be $Trillions of infrastructure in five years.

We have been in the territory that requires massive removal of existing carbon from the ecosphere ever since we failed to act seriously in the 1990s. Meanwhle we still have a denialist federal government under Trump until at least Jan of 2021. IF we get a chance to even try saving the ecosphere we dare not blow it, crash the economy from a massive energy shock and risk a reaction that will surely doom subsequent generations.

We have to go carbon negative as soon as possible and keep right on getting more and more carbon negative as fast as we can. Even then there are no guarantees we will hold warming at even 2C. We have been screwed by denialist and gradualist politics.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 7th, 2019 at 02:58:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Budget Control Act of 2011 Reality Check: "hysteria" and magical MMT limit US policy options

US government faces potential default in Sept.

the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the government posted a budget deficit of $746 billion for the first nine months of fiscal year 2019, on track to approach or top $1 trillion. Revenues were $69 billion higher and federal spending was $208 billion higher over that period.
locating "sequestered" fossil fuel expenses and payments
The new estimate echoes warnings from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who is the lead Trump administration negotiator in talks on a bipartisan deal to lift the government's borrowing cap and prevent automatic budget cuts from hitting the Pentagon and domestic agencies.
automatic Pentagon and "select" agencies top-up
Both Pelosi and McConnell vow that the government won't be allowed to default, but both also wish to link the debt limit issue with a concurrent effort to set new spending "caps" for the agency budgets that Congress sets every year.
[...]
The deadline for risking a debt default is imprecise since it depends on shifting revenue estimates and when the government needs to post major outlays. It's still most likely that the so-called X date wouldn't fall until October, but a shortfall in early September is at least possible.
US Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction: "Except for the five public hearings, the committee proceedings comprising the majority of the negotiations and counter-offers will remain sealed for 20 years under current rules". 2031

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Jul 9th, 2019 at 07:19:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Where's the graph for "nobody does anything, and emissions keep rising until we all die?" That would be the one with the strongest predictive weight.
by Zwackus on Mon Jul 8th, 2019 at 06:58:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be this one:

by asdf on Mon Jul 8th, 2019 at 03:08:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also note that long-term sea level rise estimates vary between 50 and 90 meters. The temperature graphs level off, but the sea level graphs still have steep upwards slopes even if you go out to 2300. We will all be dead by then.
by asdf on Mon Jul 8th, 2019 at 03:17:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, I keep reading about how new research suggests that extant sea-rise models are far too conservative.

Sea level rise could be even worse than we've been led to expect

by Zwackus on Tue Jul 9th, 2019 at 07:20:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Almost all climate change estimates are too conservative.  As a layperson who has been following these issues since the 1970s, this is something I realized nearly 30 years ago.  It is only now that climate scientists themselves, I observe, are beginning to realize themselves (or is it just say publicly).

Solar IS Civil Defense
by gmoke on Tue Jul 9th, 2019 at 06:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Catastrophic collapse of the Greenland ice cap could occur within 100 years, by itself raising sea levels by ~ 30'. That would make almost all coastal cities in the USA non-viable. Due to ocean floor morphology this effect will be worse on the US Atlantic seaboard than in Europe, but still it would be catastrophic for much of coastal Europe.

Current estimates of around 3 feet of sea level rise by 2100 are based on assumptions that the Greenland ice sheet will meld in the same way as an ice cube on a saucer melts. That is obviously an unsound, if soothing, assumption. Gravity plays a major role with ice sheets, as does melt water streams cutting through and under glaciers.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jul 9th, 2019 at 07:04:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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