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Looking at it from the outside, it would seem that "Macron et al want to move onto other business, and not allow the new Commission's period in office to be dominated by Brexit" should be the driving consideration from the EU's viewpoint. Europe is already into this turmoil for another four months, and any further extension or renegotiation is just a further distraction from other affairs.

It will be ironic if some international difficulty (e.g., Iran) triggers the EU to say "enough with the Brexit distraction" and not offer further discussions, allowing J&H to take the UK out without a deal--just at the time when an international difficulty makes it most imperative that the UK be in the EU.

by asdf on Sun Jul 7th, 2019 at 01:38:06 AM EST
It is not hard to imagine a Perfect storm where Boris takes the UK out with no deal just as:
  1. The world economy slows dramatically
  2. The UK economy goes into recession
  3. Some global event - e.g. Iran, as you suggest - requires maximum "western solidarity" to deliver a coherent response, a response which is no longer forthcoming from the EU because they are at "war" with Trump/Boris
  4. Trump's trade wars queer the pitch for any new FTA negotiations and perhaps lead to a collapse of the WTO system of free trade so beloved by Brexiteers
  5. Trumps difficulties with impeachment or re-election means he forgets completely about his dearest ally, the UK, just as they need his support most.
  6. Scotland votes to secede from the UK, and N.I. collapses into ungovernability
  7. UK government revenues collapse as hundreds of millions in assets are moved overseas...

Of course it will all be Corby's fault even though he is in opposition.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 8th, 2019 at 01:46:51 AM EST
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Probably number 5 is a done deal already, what with the UK ambassador getting caught saying bad stuff about the POTUS.
by asdf on Mon Jul 8th, 2019 at 03:25:19 AM EST
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The leaking of the Ambassador's memoes is quite murky.

Nobody is too upset about the content, it's widely accepted that these are the sorts of things that ambassadors should be reporting.

But the motive for it? Ooooh, conspiracies abound, but each seems to possess flaws.

The most coherent seems to be that the "journalist" who revealed them is no less than Isabel Oakeshott, who acts more as a political operative than journalist these days, whose Ivanka-esque doll looks enable her to get close to the unsuspecting before razoring their stomach open.

Seems she is helping both Johnston and Farage these days and, with no-deal looking more than likely, Farage will possibly be looking for a job and Washington Ambassador would suit him nicely. Of course he has been careful to remind verybody he is not a diplomat but he has also been suspiciously quick to condemn the ambassor for doing his job.

But, the problem with this is that, while we can understand the movies of those who came into possession of the info,  we don't know the motive of the primary source. Because this is raw data that nobody outside of the foreign Office would see, so it was leaked by a civil servant, for whom this is a crime that carries a jail sentence. So, this is no ordinary leak and suggests an intra-departmental vendetta. At which point the tail gets murky.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 8th, 2019 at 11:37:33 AM EST
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