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Jane Dodds beats outgoing Tory member Chris Davies, and says her first act will be to tell prime minister to rule out no-deal Brex.

What happened to Labour?

Lib Dems win Brecon and Radnorshire byelection, cutting Johnson Commons majority to one  

Brecon and Radnorshire: Share of the vote by party 2005-2017

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 07:59:19 AM EST
It was never a Labour constituency, but pretty obviously Labour fed the LibDems. And Plaid and Greens who abstained may well have made the difference.

As for the Tories, BP hurt them. Boris has work to do.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:22:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Adding: if I were Boris, I wouldn't be dismayed by this result.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:57:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I were Boris ...

What an awful remark to write down ...

Just like Bjinse days, it was challenging to read beyond Frank's title of the Diary. 🤢

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 09:54:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tories down TO one.

It now only takes one conservative MP to vote for a no confidence motion...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 09:30:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think this result illustrates my suggestion that the only way for the opposition to defeat Boris is via an electoral past whereby the lower placed parties in a particular constituency defer to the highest placed opposition party and run only one candidate against the Conservatives. The Conservatives would have won this seat had the Greens and Plaid Cymru not stood aside.

I know there are large policy and ideological differences between the opposition parties but the name of the game in a Parliamentary democracy is to Win seats, and to gain influence by having more of them. The biggest difficulty will not be policy differences, but personality ones with some locally selected candidates being unprepared to stand aside for a rival opposition candidate.

The other major difficulty will be to persuade Lib Dem voters to vote for a Corbyn led candidate but they are desperate enough to stop Brexit to do so. This result also shows Labour voters prepared to support a better placed Lib Dem candidate even when there is a Labour candidate in the field. Labour will suffer many more humiliations like this unless it does defer to better placed candidates.

For Boris, this is actually not so bad a result, with the Brexit party well beaten and the Tory vote down less than the Labour vote despite having a wretched candidate. The combined Tory/Brexit party vote is actually up, which is a cautionary tale should they ever form an electoral pact. However at the moment it is difficult to see on what basis they could do so as the Brexit party has no general election track record and therefore would have to fail to contest the general election at all, basically committing political suicide.

As Brexit is basically all down to Farage's work over the years, they are highly unlikely to do so. So it is down to Corbyn's leadership abilities and willingness to put country over narrow party self interest. Show a little humility now, agreeing an electoral pact and conceding some constituencies they are highly unlikely to win anyway, and he could be the next PM. But will he?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 09:52:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The obstacle to the "electoral pact" idea is, of course, the Labour Party. Its very existence, and its historical claim to represent all progressives. This is consubstatial with the wretched one-round uninominal  constituency system, otherwise known as First Past the Post.

Simply put, Labour can not give an inch to such talk. Not a single Labour candidate will be stood down.

This is very unfortunate, obviously, in the present circumstance. All the more so because informal arrangements will not work : LibDem, Green or Plaid Cymru voters may well vote tactically, even if their parties stood candidates; the Labour base is much less likely to do so.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 10:09:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I dunno, at a General Election there really isn't a lot of crossover

Guardian - Owen Jones - Labour shouldn't worry so much about the Lib Dems, they hurt the Tories more

No prime minister has lost a seat as swiftly as Boris Johnson in over a century. In 2017, the Tories won nearly half the vote in Brecon and Radnorshire and secured an 8,000 majority over the Liberal Democrats. To lose just two years later is very bad indeed. Labour slumped badly, leaving the party with a derisory vote share, but this is a seat the party hasn't won since 1974, and in which it came third even in the 1997 landslide.

In any case, whether Labour is polling well or badly nationally, it often performs poorly in byelections which are straight fights between the Lib Dems and Tories. In 2000 - when Tony Blair was enjoying a seemingly never-ending honeymoon - Labour's vote plummeted by 15 points in the Romsey byelection because of tactical voting which enabled the Lib Dems to wrest the seat from the Tories. It feels a bit unseemly to watch Lib Dems - who appealed for the votes of Labour supporters to stop the Tories - now crowing about Labour's collapsed support.

For those who desire a Labour-led government, the result again reopens the debate about the best strategy to deal with the Lib Dems.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 04:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lib Dems scotch idea of Corbyn-led caretaker government | Financial Times
Liberal Democrats have scotched the idea of installing Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street to avoid a no-deal Brexit, thereby thwarting the Labour party leadership's hopes of forming a caretaker government this autumn.

Boris Johnson is expected to face a no-confidence vote in his government soon after the UK parliament returns from its summer recess early in September. If the Conservatives fail to maintain the confidence of MPs, Labour has said it will attempt to form an alternative government. But without support from the 13 Lib Dem MPs, it will be unable to form a majority.

"I can't conceive of any circumstances under which we would put Jeremy Corbyn into No. 10," said one senior Lib Dem MP. "He's not only dangerous for our national security but for our economic security too."

So the only popular policy the LibDems have is opposing Brexit, and they are much too craven to just propose revoke, but they prefer no-deal to having Corbyn as PM?

by generic on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 01:47:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In short:
by generic on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 02:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
so true. Never trust the libDems, they will always let you down.

They're perfectly fine with a rapacious capitalism that creates poverty, illness and homelessness, but they just want to put a plaster on the worst of the sores to assuage their guilt. Gutless wankers

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 06:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like all centrists, they rely on someone else to do the heavy lifting of moving the Overton window, and then they adjust accordingly...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 09:16:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I think I've said before (approximately, and about Macron), all you have to do to call yourself "centrist" is find someone to the right of you.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 05:44:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently the LibDems are even more craven than the Tory party members (no mean feat): according to this poll last June, they were willing to push Brexit at any cost, even if it breaks the UK, but they did stop at the perspective of Prime Minister Corbyn.
by Bernard on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 06:07:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That poll was of Conservative party members?!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 09:14:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup, that's what YouGov says. You even commented about it
by Bernard on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 06:58:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 12:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Caroline Lucas calls for emergency female cabinet to block no-deal Brexit | Politics | The Guardian
The Green MP, Caroline Lucas, has thrown down the gauntlet to 10 high-profile female politicians over blocking a no-deal Brexit, proposing a cabinet of national unity including Labour's Emily Thornberry, the Liberal Democrat leader, Jo Swinson, and the former Conservative cabinet minister Justine Greening to seek legislation for a fresh referendum.

The final MP who has been approached is Yvette Cooper, one of the leading Labour figures coordinating efforts to stop no deal, but the only one of the addressees who has not explicitly endorsed a second referendum herself.


"Why women? Because I believe women have shown they can bring a different perspective to crises, are able to reach out to those they disagree with and cooperate to find solutions," she wrote.


I hear Theresa May has a lot of free time now.
by generic on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 06:38:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How can it be national unity without Ann Widdecombe?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 06:57:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ann would first have to unify her mouth with a functioning brain...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 09:37:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At some point you have to make allowances, otherwise they would have to invite Dick Braine too.
by generic on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 12:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
mainly macro: The Remainers urging people to vote for a No Deal Brexit

The key point is that the Tories will vote against any kind of soft Brexit. The only MPs who might vote for a soft Brexit are the minority of Labour MPs that want it and maybe a few Tory MPs that don't want No Deal and are prepared to defy their leader. Even if it went to a referendum, the combination of No Deal Brexiters and Remainers will easily triumph over a soft Brexit. Under a Labour government Brexit is dead, whatever Labour's leader might think.

by generic on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 11:05:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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