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Although everyone is completely sick of the UK by now, it would make no sense to force a crash-out if it could possibly be avoided.
I don't see who can force Boris to ask for such an extension if he doesn't want to.
I strongly suspect the motivation is there.
Logically that would lead to a general election, but also in all likelihood to a request for an A50 extension. Which the EU (even Macron) has already said could be granted in the case of an election or a referendum. Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
I should have added, above all, a caretaker government. Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
a.) there's not enough time to set up a coalition government before end of October, even if no a confidence vote were taken right now, b.) which it isn't, c.) and if BoJo lost it, which would be pretty embarrassing for the Conservative Party, d.) and anyway, who would be able to get a majority?
Seems to me that it all hinges on whether BoJo
e.) asks the EU for another extension, and f.) the EU grants it.
In that situation, a caretaker government request for an extension until things were cleared up would be, if not certain, highly likely.
Having said that, I doubt he'll lose a no-confidence vote. Corbyn might want to try one as soon as Parliament reconvenes, but he'll probably refrain if there isn't much hope of winning. Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
If Boris loses a Vote of Confidence (VOC) he (or someone else) has two weeks to (re)gain that confidence. Does he remain PM during this period? Is there such a concept as a caretaker govt. in the constitution? Can the UK be, effectively, without a government for some weeks? Does he move out of No. 10?
The key point being that if the British Government - any or no government - does nothing, a no deal Brexit will happen on 31st. and there is nothing anybody can do to stop it.
If no new governing majority is formed within 2 weeks, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 "he" (or Parliament?) must call a general election. But as shown elsewhere, that doesn't have to happen until after Oct 31st. - although the rules for determining when an election must be held also seem murky. In 2017 the general election didn't happen until 7 weeks after it was called "for technical reasons" - the normal period is c. 25 days?
If Boris loses a VOC, the Queen would "take soundings" to see if anyone else can command the confidence of the house. Assuming Corbyn can't command a majority but is unwilling to stand aside for (say) a moderate Tory (do they still exist?) to form a Government, the UK is effectively without a government until such time as the General Election happens.
Of course Boris can call a general election before he loses a VOC with Corbyn's support to create a two thirds majority in the HOC - as happened in 2017. Boris then remains PM for the duration of the campaign. Presumably Corbyn would agree only if the GE is called for before 31st. Oct.
The fact that the UK doesn't have a written constitution means that there is regular talk of a "constitutional crisis" in the UK - something which simply doesn't happen in more advanced democracies with a written constitution - where the Supreme Court decides on issues of interpretation and that is the end of the matter (unless, as in the USA, the Supreme Court decides to radically re-interpret what the founders "intended". Index of Frank's Diaries
Yes, he remains PM until it is demonstrated he cannot form a majority (with a time limit of two weeks). If he then resigns he moves out of N° 10, of course. If he does not, (and attempts to hang on to power), we have a first-class constitutional crisis going.
Is there a concept such as "caretaker govt" in any country's constitution? It's more an expression for a cobbled-together compromise government to deal with ongoing business.
A totally hung Parliament, from which no possible compromise government can get the support of a majority, is of course possible. Given the circumstances in which there will be a default crash-out on Oct 31 and the national and international importance of same, there would be a powerful incentive for MPs to support an anti-no-deal government under a moderate figurehead PM, or go down in history as utterly irresponsible. Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
The question is will Boris want an election before Oct 31, or after? Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
○ Brexit news latest: Opposition parties table vote of no confidence in Government | Evening Standard - Dec. 19, 2018 |
○ Caretaker Government - 28 March 1979
Mrs Margaret Thatcher: As the Government no longer have authority to carry on business without the agreement of the Opposition, I make it quite clear that we shall facilitate any business which requires the agreement of the Opposition so that the Dissolution can take place at the very earliest opportunity and the uncertainty ended.
Following that precedent, Boris could remain PM but with an agreement with the Opposition aka Corbyn. Very hard to see how that agreement could not rule out a no-deal Brexit. Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
Jeremy Corbyn has called on the UK's most senior civil servant to intervene to stop Boris Johnson forcing a no-deal Brexit in the middle of an election campaign, amid rising signs the country is heading for the polls again this autumn. The Labour leader wrote to Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, accusing the prime minister of plotting an "unprecedented, unconstitutional and anti-democratic abuse of power", after it emerged No 10 would be prepared to delay an election until immediately after 31 October if Johnson loses a no confidence vote among MPs. In his letter, Corbyn demanded urgent clarification of the rules around purdah, which are meant to prevent the government taking major policy decisions during an election campaign. He asked Sedwill to confirm that if the UK is due to leave the EU without a deal during an election campaign, then the government must seek an extension to article 50 and allow an incoming administration to take a decision about Brexit on the basis of the result.
The Labour leader wrote to Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, accusing the prime minister of plotting an "unprecedented, unconstitutional and anti-democratic abuse of power", after it emerged No 10 would be prepared to delay an election until immediately after 31 October if Johnson loses a no confidence vote among MPs.
In his letter, Corbyn demanded urgent clarification of the rules around purdah, which are meant to prevent the government taking major policy decisions during an election campaign.
He asked Sedwill to confirm that if the UK is due to leave the EU without a deal during an election campaign, then the government must seek an extension to article 50 and allow an incoming administration to take a decision about Brexit on the basis of the result.
Lexical item:
purdah (countable and uncountable, plural purdahs) (chiefly South Asia) A curtain, especially as used to conceal and divide women from men and strangers in some Hindu or Muslim traditions. [from 17th c.] quotations ▼ (rare, obsolete) A striped cotton cloth which is used to make curtains. [19th c.] The state or system of social gender seclusion in some Muslim or Hindu communities. [from 19th c.] A long veil, or other all-enveloping clothing, worn by women in some Muslim societies. [from 20th c.] (figuratively) Secrecy, isolation. [from 20th c.] (Britain) The period immediately before an election or referendum during which restrictions are in force on the activity of civil servants.
(chiefly South Asia) A curtain, especially as used to conceal and divide women from men and strangers in some Hindu or Muslim traditions. [from 17th c.] quotations ▼ (rare, obsolete) A striped cotton cloth which is used to make curtains. [19th c.] The state or system of social gender seclusion in some Muslim or Hindu communities. [from 19th c.] A long veil, or other all-enveloping clothing, worn by women in some Muslim societies. [from 20th c.] (figuratively) Secrecy, isolation. [from 20th c.] (Britain) The period immediately before an election or referendum during which restrictions are in force on the activity of civil servants.
○ Summer Recess Debate - Latter Days of Boris
I don't see Jeremy Corbyn leading the House of Commons out of its dilemma. The offer by Corbyn amounted to a choice between Boris or him ... that will NOT work out well. A Labour strategy that has failed for months and like the Australian election this year, Labour loses out!
○ Foreign Policy: Boris Ally Lynton Crosby and CTF
Thus ... after the defeat of Remain, Hillary Clinton, Bill Shorten will Jeremy Corbyn be next!
The winning strategy by Conservaties, Trump, et al. ... staying on message. How brutal it may be in content! Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
"Short answer: the Queen could dismiss Boris Johnson if he lost a vote of no confidence and refused to resign," said Robert Hazell, professor of government and constitution at University College London. "But she would only do so if the House of Commons indicated clearly who should be appointed as prime minister in his place." Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 there is 14-day window after a vote of no confidence in which to find an alternative government capable of securing the confidence of the Commons. Any election would be held 25 working days after the dissolution of parliament.
"But she would only do so if the House of Commons indicated clearly who should be appointed as prime minister in his place."
Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 there is 14-day window after a vote of no confidence in which to find an alternative government capable of securing the confidence of the Commons. Any election would be held 25 working days after the dissolution of parliament.
Constitutional crisis for the Queen? PM appointed by the Queen on the condition the candidate has a majority support in the Commons.
After summer recess, need the no-confidence vote to start the 14 day period. Boris Johnson could set the election date after the 31st of October ... no-deal Brexit would be inevitable. In case another majority government can be formed, a new PM would be appointed by the Queen. This requires for him to set a date for the election. He could choose a date beyond the 25 working days, but yet before the 31st of October. To call an earlier election, he needs at least 66% of MPs to agree to it.
I think that's how I understood what he was telling the BBC viewers.
○ Could there be an early general election? Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
"The Queen is dead. Long live the King"
However, it's extremely unlikely he'd do anything to rock the boat immediately. I think he's a more overt religionist that Liz and so will babble and dabble in faith keep to the Fen Causeway
#dedQueen Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
Is there a concept such as "caretaker govt" in any country's constitution?
Most constitutions I am aware of are pretty explicit as to what happens if a PM loses a VOC or a general election. Usually this entails the outgoing PM staying on in a caretaker capacity until such time as a replacement is elected. The theory being you need at least a caretaker government in place to handle any day-to-day issues or emergencies which may arise. Of course lacking a parliamentary or popular mandate, a "caretaker government" can't undertake any major new initiatives in its own right.
Some countries - e.g. Belgium - take this to extremes and it can be many months before a successor is elected which can create quite a hiatus in the process of government. In Ireland last time around, no party got more than 25% of the vote and 30% of the seats which eventually resulted in a "confidence and supply" arrangement between the two major parties and a very small minority government.
Added to this Fine Gael changed leader half way through the parliamentary term which means Leo Varadker is the leader of a very small minority government without a personal popular mandate. It hasn't damaged his legitimacy in the slightest, but severely circumscribed his freedom of action. Without Brexit, and if the economy hadn't been growing strongly, the opposition would have kicked him out as soon as the confidence & supply agreement ended. Index of Frank's Diaries
So in our case of a hung congress, there is a constituency for a "no government at all" situation. In fact, we are operating that way right now, sort of, with an obstinate democratic majority in the house and an obstinate republican majority in the senate (and an obstinate president).
But I think our rules are clear enough to prevent the case of not having an executive branch at all.
To avert a no-deal Brexit in less than 3 months, something needs to happen. In the UK. We're in deep trouble.
What has been agreed? ... The extension is flexible: dubbed a "flextension", it means the UK could leave the EU earlier than October 31 if the exit deal is ratified. EU leaders have reiterated that the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement on the terms of the UK's exit cannot be reopened; nor can the extension be used to start negotiations on future relations. However, the non-binding Political Declaration covering future ties may be reconsidered "if the position of the United Kingdom were to evolve".
...
○ Term "flextension" at EU Malta meeting - April 2019
Flextension failed in its purpose to pressure UK parliament to accept the offer on the table ...
○ Europeans likely to grudgingly agree to delay Brexit
Merkel and Macron don't see eye-to-eye ... interests don't line up as both wrestle for the powerposition in the EU.
Today Mark Rutte and Jeroen Dijsselbloem were on the losing side (Nordic, Germany/Merkel). Italy joined the Mediterranean countries and the Visegrad group.
○ Untapped potential: How new alliances can strengthen the EU | ECFR | Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
Realistically, a vote of no confidence would have had to be passed before Parliament was prorogued before the summer, and that didn't happen because new PMs are traditionally accorded a honeymoon period. Of course in any normal democracy, a newly appointed party leader would have to win a vote of confidence in the HOC BEFORE being appointed PM, but then the UK is far from being a normal democracy. I refer you to my letter to the editor published on that subject. Index of Frank's Diaries
Boris has just been called to form a government because the Queen was advised that he commanded a majority. If that were rapidly shown to be false, the Palace would want him out and another person named in his place. In other words, the Palace would have an at least advisory influence on the crisis that would be created if Boris attempted to hang on. Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
Probably there are solicitors studying up on their Henry VIII procedures right now.
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