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Interesting reports in this Guardian article, all of it worth a look:

Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal Brexit is his "central scenario", EU diplomats have been briefed following a meeting between the prime minister's chief envoy and officials in Brussels.

David Frost, who replaced Olly Robbins as the government's chief Europe adviser, was said to have instead sought to discuss how negotiations could be reset after the UK crashes out on 31 October, during his recent talks with senior EU figures.

(...)

Frost was said to have told the officials that a technological solution to the Irish border was the UK's preferred option before admitting that "it would not be ready now for Brexit".

"Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative," a diplomat concluded of the discussion.

(...)

EU officials were left with the impression that the British government would seek to avoid any alignment with Brussels that would prevent the UK from pursuing a policy of deregulation.

A diplomatic source said: "This is a downgrade of the offer in EU mandate, which is for a comprehensive agreement that eliminates tariffs accompanied by level playing field arrangements.

"A conventional free trade agreement reduces tariffs and does not eradicate them. Not having a level playing field or alignment will not fly."

So right. Britannia throws off her chains and... doesn't get a trade agreement with the EU, gets nothing better than currently with ROW, and... gets enchained again by being eaten up by USA.

Go Boris.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 04:15:55 PM EST
I had just read the article ... clear and ludicrous ... first time the Boris Club can be believed.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 04:39:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't get the logic of trying to negotiate a trade deal AFTER Brexit, when any deal negotiated requires unanimity and can be held up by the regional parliament of Wallonia. Trade deals typically take 7 years to negotiate and some are never ratified. So what does Boris think is going to happen in the meantime? WTO rules? Any Brexit deal only requires a weighted majority of the Council and is therefore much easier to achieve.

Has anyone here ever heard the EU side agree that WTO rules will then apply? I haven't - all that talk has come from Brexiteers. Even dividing up EU WTO quotas requires an agreement, and to the best of my knowledge no division of quotas has been agreed by the WTO - all of whose members have to agree. Again -no guarantee this will ever happen.

So we could be left with a scenario where the UK simply has no WTO trading quotas, and full tariffs apply to all exports. Added to this, without a deal there is no mutual recognition of regulatory authorities. So even if there is no mass deregulation in the UK, existing exports will have to be checked and tested to ensure they comply. Simply unmanageable with the volume of exports involved.

So Boris seems to be betting the EU will allow a de facto free trade situation to arise without any guarantees of regulatory alignment or compliance. I can't see how the EU can allow this. So half of all UK exports will be stuck in UK ports awaiting clearance. Can't see this situation being sustainable either.

So a megaphone war will break out and both sides will did in. Does Boris really believe "they need us more than we need them"? I can see all UK/EU trade, and some travel grinding to a halt as UK airlines won't have landing rights within the UK. Virtually a war situation. Does Boris think Trump will put a gun to the EU's head?  Can't see that de-escalating the situation either.

There simply is no rational explanation for this strategy beyond a belief the EU will simply lie down and die. Boris has made life so much easier for Varadker and EU leaders - no difficult trade-offs or compromises necessary. Simply hunker down until a different UK government is formed. At that point the UK will be begging for something like the now Hated Withdrawal Agreement.

Presumably Boris thinks he can win a general election on a no deal basis. From an EU point of view it doesn't matter if he does, especially if it is held after Oct. 31st. No deal is no deal. The UK electorate possibly think no deal simply means a return to the status quo ante 1973. But it doesn't. The world is a much more integrated and regulated place now. There was no Blue skies or WTO then. Trade volumes were much lower and there was no transnational JIT production processes.

So the bottom line is utter chaos unless the EU undermines its own legal order, and does so unanimously. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 05:25:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Boris really believe "they need us more than we need them"?

Apparently so.

There simply is no rational explanation for this strategy beyond a belief the EU will simply lie down and die.

Well, yes.
A high stakes game of chicken, just like that famous cliff jumping car scene in Rebel Without a Cause.

by Bernard on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 06:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The more apt analogy is "human shield", or hostage scenario.

Tory gov is not alone in the vehicle as it were and indifference to the well being of others has been expressed by observers to no avail. Why they still expect a measure of sympathy for adverse consequences to temper Tory gov "strategy" is a bit of mystery to me.

Then again, I'm not steeped in christian dogma.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:43:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...Boris seems to be betting the EU will allow a de facto free trade situation to arise without any guarantees of regulatory alignment or compliance.

It's the standard UK elite's psychosis.  They simply cannot grasp The Other is self-actualized, capable of acting in their own self-interest.  The EU made the mistake of validating this dysfunction by continually backing down from the deadlines.  So now the silly sods really do think the EU will allow the UK to have all the rights and privileges of EU membership without the duties, costs, and responsibilities.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 06:54:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian - Larry Elliot - Boris Johnson takes note of Trump's game theory to keep EU guessing on Brexit

Two cars are hurtling towards each other down a narrow country lane. Both have the option to pull over but neither driver wants to give way first. What happens next? This is the sort of scenario that lies at the heart of game theory, the use of models to show how rational decision-makers interact with each other. Game theory is big in economics and, in the current circumstances, that's hardly surprising because two key political issues lend themselves to game theory analysis.
[....]
Boris Johnson has arrived in Downing Street and has reshaped the cabinet so that it is run by Brexit true believers rather than those who backed remain in the referendum. Preparations for a no-deal departure have been ramped up in order to show the rest of the EU that the government means what it says. Johnson has made it clear that he is in no hurry to start negotiations and, by spraying money, is creating the impression that he would be willing to call a general election in order to get a mandate for his tougher Brexit approach. From a game theory perspective, all this makes complete sense. Like Trump with Xi, the prime minister is trying to keep the EU guessing.

What is potentially helpful to the new prime minister is that the eurozone economy is in worse shape than it was a year ago. Germany, in particular, is struggling. Its manufacturing exports have been hit by the global slowdown and Berlin fears it will be targeted by Trump when he launches the second front in the trade war. Angela Merkel does not want a no-deal Brexit.
[....]
Leo Varadkar is worried about the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the Irish economy. What should also concern the taoiseach is whether the EU would be prepared to sell Ireland out in order to avoid one.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 07:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given the unstated assumption of computational outcomes is always mutual acceptance of game rules by 2 or more players, Trump's "strategy" ought to be immediately obvious. Indeed every minute since inauguration day one complaint (not "HE'S A RACIST") from all corners of the ahh peer group.

IOW, the little known secret to adversarial victory,
memorialized centuries ago in The Art of War (bibble);
restated in common law doctrine ("duty to retreat");
suggested by Herbert Simone in Sciences of the Artificial ("prisoner's dilemma"): don't play;
and confirmed by William H. Press and Freeman Dyson discuss "Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma contains strategies that dominate any evolutionary opponent", or "Come up with a new theory of mind."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Same complaint about Tories, basically.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two cars are hurtling towards each other down a narrow country lane.

A more precise analogy would involve a Mini Cooper facing a 40-ton Saab-Scania truck.

by Bernard on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 07:28:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the driver of the Mini Cooper is convinced that if he just puts the pedal to the metal the 40-ton Saab-Scania truck will turn, because otherwise that driver is going to get such a mess to clean up.
by fjallstrom on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 01:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is the Saab-Scania truck  has nowhere to turn to, because he hurtling down a narrow road...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 01:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Trump's game theory"

Right.

by asdf on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 04:01:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump's game theory
Presidents  Trump  and  Xiare  approaching  a  game  theory  Nash  construct.Both,  predecessors included,  have  colluded  into  creating  a  race  towards  dominance  of  global  trade,  finance  and technology. China by, primarily,  enhancing the consumption share of US GDP and America by feeding  Chinese  insatiable  hunger  for  technology.    They  created  a  dangerous  measure  of interdependence that translated into a mutually exclusive "win" situation.  The game would have continued unchallenged was it not for President Trump's sudden realization that the probability of a win-win outcome is low. He then tampered with the underlying premises of the game and a new  dynamic  emerged. How  will  the  game  evolve?  
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 04:08:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm incredulous Trump saw that we were not on track for a win-win outcome.  I'm not even convinced he saw the US in general was not winning.  As with every other "deal" he supposedly has known the art of, he saw a quick, front-end benefit to himself personally and grabbed it, everyone else be hanged.
by rifek on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 10:52:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the EU stipulation from the beginning to conclusion of WA negotiation.

Tory gov has refused to agree the WA, nonetheless.

So.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:36:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't place a bet on the UK getting any agreement with the US either.  House Democrats and Republicans are going to be pissed at Boris over the GFA.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 06:39:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know about that.

Honor among thieves, etc.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also the US has plenty of internal problems of its own, and an election coming up next year, probably a recession, possibly a two-front war. The last thing we are going to have time to worry about is helping a small island settle a foolish trade dispute.
by asdf on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 03:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Donald Trump promised a great trade deal. And he has a sterling record as a reliable business partner.
by Bernard on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 07:26:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed an expert into insolvency and foreign cities linked to failed states ... not just Red Square mind you!

Frank Sater, Ilyas Khrapunov, Mukhtar Ablyazov in So-Ho Money Laundering Case
Kazakhstan's BTA Bank Files New Lawsuit Targeting Ex-Trump Associate | RFERL |

Related reading ...

All American, Spy Felix Sater Working All Sides
Russian Oil Wealth, Kremlin and Oligarchs

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 08:48:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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