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Boris certainly intends to bully Parliament, and the media will no doubt assist by pushing the Bercow-enemy-of-the-will-of-the-people line. However, he can't stop a motion of no-confidence, and if he loses it, he will be searching for a majority, which is a significantly less powerful position.

As for Corbyn, of course being LOTO doesn't guarantee he'll get a majority together behind his name. It does give him considerable leverage, though: any candidature he doesn't agree with can be vetoed by the withdrawal of Labour votes.

Supposing a vote of no-confidence, there will be a period of intense tractations. The LOTO, having tabled the motion and obtained a majority behind it, will be in the driving seat for retaining the same majority for his (caretaker) PMship. If Corbyn himself falls short of a supporting majority, another person might be able to gather the necessary odd votes. Corbyn would, again, be in a position to weigh on that person's candidature: if there were not a clear understanding on 1) A50 extension; 2) immediate general election, he would be unlikely to support it.

There are going to be some Tory MPs who will be immensely solicited between now and mid-September. How many will put the interests of the country before their own re-election chances remains to be seen.

My prediction is that Boris will bully them into submission on the very first vote, and the rest of the suppositions above will be moot. Hope I'm wrong.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Aug 19th, 2019 at 07:28:27 AM EST
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