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Supposing a vote of no-confidence, there will be a period of intense tractations.

Intense and zero-time-required transactions? The scenarios for avoiding Brexit are getting hilariously convoluted. According to my limited understanding:

First, parliament needs to be back in session. Second, Corbyn needs to introduce a no confidence motion. Third, BoJo needs to lose the motion. Fourth, BoJo needs to lose his effort to regroup the wavering Conservatives by threatening them with Corbyn. Fifth, Corbyn needs to win his effort to group the anti-Brexit factions. Sixth, assuming that he fails, "somebody else" needs to get a majority. Seventh, either Corbyn or "somebody else" needs to pass a motion to retract or delay Article 50. Eight, that has to go over to the EU Brexit negotiating team, which needs to be gathered back together and put back into operation. Ninth, that team needs to approve it. Tenth, the EU states need to approve it.

All of these items, each one by itself thickly painted in emotion and politics and general craziness, and each one opening numerous avenues that BoJo can use to throw a wrench into the works, have to be completed in approximately six weeks.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

by asdf on Mon Aug 19th, 2019 at 06:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You were doing fine until about stage 7. Retracting an article 50 notification is a unilateral and definitive act which stops the entire Brexit process. Delaying Brexit by extending the A.50 notification is a matter for the EU Council alone - who have said they will do so in order to facilitate a "democratic event" such as a general election or second referendum.

Where there is a will, there is a way. The question, in this case, is whether the majority in Parliament and the country against a no deal Brexit is, or can be, as organised as the pro-Brexit forces. At the moment, the answer has to be no, but there are still some weeks available for this to play out.

Nevertheless "grasping at straws" is probably a fair description of the chances of reversing Brexit at this stage. If there has been any greater incompetence than on the part of successive UK governments, it has been on the part of those in the UK opposed to successive UK governments...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 19th, 2019 at 09:04:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was under the impression that this was still under some debate, with a non-binding reading from the EU courts suggesting that the UK could withdraw unilaterally following a democratic process.

So does Corbyn or "somebody else" issuing a withdrawal letter before an election count as democratic???

It's a mess, that's for sure.

by asdf on Tue Aug 20th, 2019 at 02:28:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EJC issued a binding finding that the UK had the unilateral right to withdraw its A.50 notification until such time as Brexit had actually happened. After that A.49 applies, i.e. the UK would have to re-apply for membership like any other third party. Any UK government cold do so, in accordance with its own constitution - with or without "a democratic event" beforehand.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 20th, 2019 at 08:04:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Intense and zero-time-required transactions?

I wrote "a period of", therefore not zero-time. The period being the 14 days required by the fixed-term Parliament Act.

The minimum time for an election is 25 working days, ie 5 weeks. An election could be held before 31 October.

The EU has already signalled readiness to accept an extension for a major democratic event such as a referendum or general election. An extension could be very quickly granted.

Time is not the problem. The problem is that the opposition to no deal will not get their act together/ will not chip off enough Tories to beat the government.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Aug 20th, 2019 at 06:31:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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