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Boris Johnson predicts last-minute Brexit deal
Speaking at the G7 summit in Biarritz, the U.K. prime minister repeatedly refused to rule out suspending parliament in order to force through a no-deal Brexit, should an agreement with Brussels not be possible.

In the closing press conference of his first international summit, an exuberant Johnson said that chances of a deal depend "exclusively" on the EU and whether they were prepared to strip the Northern Ireland backstop plan out of the Brexit agreement.

"I do think that the EU does tend to come to an agreement right at the end, that's what I've noticed in my own observation of Brussels negotiations," he said. He added that the point of "walking away" for the U.K. would only come on October 31, the legal deadline by which the country is set to leave.

by Bernard on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 06:03:08 PM EST
What we've been saying: Boris and the rest of the Leavers think the EU will wimp out.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 06:08:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The other point being that Johnson isn't even interested in watering down the backstop or coming up with workable "alternative arrangement". It's no backstop or no deal. No detailed negotiations.

The EU usually finds a way to fudge ultimate agreements so everyone can claim to have gotten something out of the final compromise. But you hold a gun to their heads, and they are likely to prove obdurate.

The real question is whether even as good a deal as the Withdrawal Agreement will be available to the UK after Brexit day, when unanimity will be required, and everyone can put in their special requests or requirements.

There won't be any trade talks, for a start. No passporting for City financial services. Perhaps even no ladng rights for UK owned airlines. (That's a tricky one for Ireland, as Aer Lingus, so long the national carrier is now owned by British Airways (as is Iberia).

Can we imagine an EU with no landing rights for Iberia or Aer Lingus?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 06:16:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Landing is only one part of it. Most transatlantic flights to and from the continent fly over British airspace. Without any agreement, the chaos would be enormous.
by Bernard on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 06:35:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AFAIK the Blueskies Agreement, which regulates EU airlines, applies restrictions primarily on landing rights, not overflight rights. Which is not to say the UK might not try to muddy the waters with retaliatory measures... Not much reaches the UK from the US without overflying Irish airspace either, although I suppose a route over the North pole would be possible...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 06:43:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the City has already organised separate agreements for financial services. It's not really part of the UK and has certain operational "flexibilities"

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:37:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Will those agreements stand if the Withdrawal agreement is not ratified and a trade war develops? In the short term I understand there are some "service" the city provide which other EU financial services centres are ill-equipped to provide, and the Commission may have agreed some deals on a strictly needs must basis.

Longer term, I can't see the EU wanting to maintain a dependency on a financial services centre outside its own boundaries. There is simply too much money to be made by the elect few, and perhaps some extra tax revenues for Governments concerned. I expect the loss of very lucrative City services to other EU centres will be the single most devastating effect of Brexit, as it will have a radical impact on government finances.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 09:01:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, that's why I was surprised when I read that an agreement had been reached.

But nevertheless, such is the claim

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 09:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
archived: PART V, Financial Provisions, of the draft Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally agreed by the parties March 2018. It was one of the few wholly adopted. In that sense, being the earliest, one might reasonably construe that (1) "The City" successfully lobbied its business needs to the extent permitted (by relocating ops to an EU27) and (2) all provisions therein, engrossing EU financial settlement and supervisory authorities, are least likely to be modified in the unlikely event that the EU agrees to modify the Withdrawal Agreement.

The ECB reiterated guidance from 2018:

As discussed in a Notice published by the European Commission on 8 February 2018, in the event of a no-deal Brexit Union law would cease to apply to the United Kingdom, which would become a third country. In such a scenario, several of the provisions of the Capital Requirements Regulation and Capital Requirements Directive could apply in a different manner (or not at all)*, as far as the United Kingdom - or UK-linked exposures or assets - are concerned. Accordingly, the ECB expects banks to be prepared for differences in the application of the prudential provisions after the end of October 2019.
For your convenience, final draft of the Withdrawal Agreement concluded Feb 2019, which the UK has yet to ratify, at Part V.

You may now avigate the full document from the hyperlink table of contents anchored at the bottom of the screen.
--
* ECJ jurisdiction (PART III), convened EU-UK arbitration panel, or GATT 1994 protocols in the event of 'no-deal'.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 10:52:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any provisions for financial services contained in the Withdrawal agreement will fall if that agreement is not ratified. Some separate provisions may be enacted to overcome immediate legal issues with current transactions etc., but I doubt a far reaching deal will be reached without all of the issues covered by the Withdrawal Agreement being settled. Each country will have a veto on any deal after Brexit, and I can't see Ireland agreeing to anything until the border issue is sorted.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 10:34:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The reality is UK status as third country viz. EU27.

Third country status is defined by provisions of TFEU and GATT 1994 wherever cited in the Withdrawal Agreement. International instruments to which UK and EU are parties will succeed "bi-lateral" terms of the WA.

Absent an act to revoke its A.50 and regardless of an act to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement (transition inclusive) or "flextesion" deadlines of the so-called (no) negotiation period, UK will finally convert to third country.

Accordingly, UK financial and banking services firms have been and are entering conforming private charters with EU/EC (espec. data sharing) and each EU27 nation-state (espec. tax regime) where they intend to domicile for purposes of business including but not limited to fiduciary obligations to UK gov financial settlement with EU gov outstanding.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 03:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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