Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
I'm not enough of an economist or statistician to be sure how export figures are compiled. Presumably there are some rules of origin and destination applied with mere transit through a territory insufficient to categorise a shipment as an export to there.

That said, Ireland's exports to the Netherlands have always been suspiciously high, presumably because lots of our goods are trans-shipped through Rotterdam. One would have thought the goods would have to be "bought" by a shipping agent there to qualify as an export to Holland.

The situation is even more perverse with regard to the export of "services" with companies like Apple, Google and Facebook "booking" sales in Ireland, even if the customer is in Germany. Contract manufacturing by Irish firms in third countries can also be booked as an export, even if the goods never touched our shores.

Irish export figures have been extremely impressive over the past few decades, until one remembers that as much as a third of them might be bogus for the reasons cited above.

Officially the UK has its largest Trade surplus with the US with Ireland in second place, until one realises the USA also claims a trade surplus with the UK!

What seems to be uncontested is that Ireland's trading reliance on the UK has been declining rapidly since we joined the EU, from c. 70% of total Irish trade in 1973, to c. 13% now. The Brits don't seem to realise it, but they could be losing one of their very few trading surpluses very quickly, if UK/IE trade is curtailed by Brexit.

Tesco executives call Ireland "Treasure Island", such are their trading margins here. Perish the thought their margins could be hit by tariffs on UK originating goods. Almost all their brands are British owned...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 06:39:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reminder of the story about the World War One British High Command.  They had one set of figures to confuse the public, one set to confuse the government, and one set to confuse itself.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 07:41:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The same applies to Ireland's GNP figures which are religiously compiled in compliance with international conventions. However when large global corporates based in Ireland moved huge assets from one section of their balance sheets into their Irish companies this resulted in us recording 26% GNP growth in 2015!

When Paul Krugman dubbed this "Leprechaun economics" the government had no option but to try to develop a bespoke measure which stripped out the balance sheet activities of global corporates and more accurately reflect real economic activity in Ireland. It is called GNI* (Gross National Income).

However the EU still use the traditional GNP measure when calculating Ireland's contribution to the EU budget, which means that the financial engineering activities of global corporates have real implications for Irish Government costs and results in Ireland being a net contributor to the EU budget for some years.

Some of the Global corporates activities may be pure tax optimisation strategies, but others are genuine transactions - for instance when air plane leasing firms based in Shannon place orders for hundreds of Boeing or Airbus Jets at a time  to a value of several Billion. This results in huge fluctuations in our export/import and balance of payment figures which can make real underlying trends difficult to discern.

The national statistics office is coy about releasing more detailed breakdowns which might identify the firms behind these fluctuations as this may be "commercially sensitive" information. So we still don't have fully accurate figures for our export performance...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:17:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The joys of basing your economy on being a tax avoidance trojan horse within the EU.

The UK hd a larger economic base and so was more immune to this behaviour, but I'm sure a lot of the waywardness of our economy is due to this crap hppening within The City on an industrial scale

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BEA | U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2019, pub'd. Aug 2019
The June figures show [US] surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.8), Hong Kong ($2.3), Brazil ($1.3), and United Kingdom ($0.1). [US] Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.2), European Union ($15.9), Mexico ($9.2), Japan ($6.2), Germany ($5.2), Canada ($3.3), Italy ($2.6), France ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.7), India ($1.6), South Korea ($1.4), OPEC ($0.3), Saudi Arabia ($0.3), and Singapore ($0.1).
Customary two mo. lag in reporting by ONS and EURSTAT as well.

To be clear, Team Trump's ahh strategy to reverse US trade balances --from deficits all the way down to surplus ...by the world's IMPORTer-- isn't obtaining the desired result. Presumably increasing imports from the US, besides medicine and medical equipment, will further improve US-UK relations in this regard. By val if not vol. Which would be ironic, considering the origins.

2017 data visualization by MIT-OEC
country profile index by MIT-OEC


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 07:57:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hmm, yes, well, no.
COMMERCE | Trade in Goods with United Kingdom, 1985-2019, gross val

UK has got to pick up its game for SUSTAINABLE surplus with US.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:05:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which will be challenging as the world's most grossly overvalued currency tanks.
1 Pound Sterling = 1.2215 United States Dollar

Brit industry can't even handle EUR parity.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:09:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series