Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Looking at UK opinion polling since Boris became Prime Minister, it is clear the Tories have gained a considerable "bounce" from his election, and have an average lead over Labour of 7%. The Lib/Dems are averaging a solid 18% and the Greens 6%. The Brexit party has been the main looser, down to fourth place on 14%, having led 8 of the previous 24 polls since the European elections. UKIP and ChangeUK meanwhile, have almost disappeared off the electoral map. Based on these numbers, the only chance Labour and the Lib Dems have of defeating Boris is by having an electoral pact whereby the better placed of their candidates at the 2017 General election is given a free run at the conservative candidate. Otherwise, with a mere 31% of the vote, Boris can win an overall majority. Such are the joys of a first past the post electoral system.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 04:12:47 PM EST
With the Lib Dems having elected a Tory-lite as leader, fat chance of an electoral alliance with Labour.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 04:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An electoral pact doesn't have to imply any policy convergence (beyond being against a no-deal Brexit) or a coalition after the election: merely a recognition that Labour and the Lib Dems need each other to be able to defeat incumbent Tories and win more seats. Of course Lib Dem voters would also have to be prepared to vote labour, and vice versa, if that was the main anti-no deal candidate standing in their constituency.

This in turn would imply some joint Corbyn/Swinson campaign appearances to persuade their voters to vote for each others candidates. If they can't get over their personality/ideological differences even to that degree, then neither qualifies as a serious politician and they will deserve the beating they will likely get.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 04:36:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the biggest issue the LibDems seem to have with Corbyn is his determination to call a General Election.

All of the ex-Labour MPs now in the Tories as well as all of the tories can expect to be dumped from Parliament. Indeed Swinson's own constituency is at risk from an SNP resurgence.

So, despite being the party of Remain, LibDem MPs seem not to be so willing to prevent No-deal by sacrificing their own seats.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:24:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
sorry, needs to be re-written a bit;-

All of the ex-Labour (&Tory) MPs now in the Tories LibDems as well as all of the tories (who vote no confidence) can expect to be dumped from Parliament.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 07:23:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why neither the LibDems nor the ragged remnants of Change UK - or whatever they're calling themselves this week - support a VONC followed by an election, and why today's plan is to use legislation to stop No Deal and then see where that leads.

My guess is that if Parliament tells Johnson to take No Deal off the table he'll just say 'No - make me."

And then we'll be back to No Deal and the threat of a VONC and an election, with a few more weeks wasted.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 12:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why I have been saying only an electoral pact which will allow sitting MPs and leading anti-Tory candidates in 2017 election a free run against Boris/Farage in any new election will enable an anti-Boris majority to emerge in parliament.

But before that can happen, all other options have to be exhausted and truly desperate measures contemplated and eliminated. Finally they will also require the fig leaf of not having to install Jeremy in No.10 so that petty jealousies and personality conflicts can be satisfied.

We are dealing with a weak bunch of careerist annoyed that their entitlement to high office has been stymied. Nothing much can be expected of them until their personal fantasies are indulged and thwarted. Never has so much depended on so few idiots...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 04:29:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I suggested on FB, "the only polling company with any credibility on the UK scene is Survation. They have a tory lead of 4% over labour. (The rest are closer to Rasmussen in their willingness to provide results to flatter the tories)

But it's well established by now that the libdems hurt tories far more than Labour, especially as they track towards more traditionally tory policies and their avowed hatred of Labour.

So my take is that Labour's 24% is a good percentage when the Tories/brexit and LibDems are fighting over similar electorates"

Especially as electoral law forces the media to present all parties relatively evenly, which is now considered the very reason for Labour's surge during the last General Election. I haven't heard any panic being reported about the polls from Labour leaning blogs who have a good relationship with the Cabinet.

Of course, the Blairites are salivating at the possibility of wipeout, or at least electoral embarrassment and so are feigning their "worry" with concern trolling in every centre right newspaper.

And much as at the last GE, they're all gonna end up with egg on their face, not that it will shut them up.

By the way, Uxbridge (Boris own constituency) is officially a marginal and Labour have been getting good results in private polling there and have good reason to think they can dump him as an MP

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:16:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My suspicion has been that Boris will try to goad Corbyn into supporting a general election in the belief he can win it, provided it is immediately after Brexit day and before the Brexit chaos really hits. In my view Corbyn should be willing to agree, but only if the election is to be called before Brexit day so that the incoming government can ask for an A.50 extension if that is what they want to do.

The only thing which might dissuade Boris from such a course of action is the risk he might lose his own seat. If the polls are as biased as you suggest they may actually persuade Boris to go for it when the real facts on the ground don't warrant it. Theresa May had a huge lead in the polls when she called the 2017 election.

There seem to be an awful lot of people in the Commons talking a good game but unwilling to vote no confidence because of the vulnerability of their own seats. That is why I have been suggesting an electoral pact as a way of reassuring the dissidents they will get a clear run at a Brexiteer to maximise the Remain (and their own) vote.

But there seems to be an awful lot of personal animosity and ideological baggage preventing cooperation across party lines, so I doubt that scenario will come to pass. Allowing a no-deal Brexit to happen while clinging on to your own seat for another few months doesn't have much of a heroic ring to it...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whatever statistical games the poll companies are playing to try and adjust their numbers I wouldn't have much confidence extrapolating past behaviour in a very different political environment to future behaviour in a fast moving and high pressure election environment.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 08:33:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the main points of objection are already covered, but I think it is fair to say that Labour HQ does not take a polling before the election period starts as a strong indication of election results to come. Especially in such a dynamic situation. And they should not. "Look at the polls, better things aren't possible" is a circular prophecy.
by generic on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 09:55:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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