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As I suggested on FB, "the only polling company with any credibility on the UK scene is Survation. They have a tory lead of 4% over labour. (The rest are closer to Rasmussen in their willingness to provide results to flatter the tories)

But it's well established by now that the libdems hurt tories far more than Labour, especially as they track towards more traditionally tory policies and their avowed hatred of Labour.

So my take is that Labour's 24% is a good percentage when the Tories/brexit and LibDems are fighting over similar electorates"

Especially as electoral law forces the media to present all parties relatively evenly, which is now considered the very reason for Labour's surge during the last General Election. I haven't heard any panic being reported about the polls from Labour leaning blogs who have a good relationship with the Cabinet.

Of course, the Blairites are salivating at the possibility of wipeout, or at least electoral embarrassment and so are feigning their "worry" with concern trolling in every centre right newspaper.

And much as at the last GE, they're all gonna end up with egg on their face, not that it will shut them up.

By the way, Uxbridge (Boris own constituency) is officially a marginal and Labour have been getting good results in private polling there and have good reason to think they can dump him as an MP

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:16:57 PM EST
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My suspicion has been that Boris will try to goad Corbyn into supporting a general election in the belief he can win it, provided it is immediately after Brexit day and before the Brexit chaos really hits. In my view Corbyn should be willing to agree, but only if the election is to be called before Brexit day so that the incoming government can ask for an A.50 extension if that is what they want to do.

The only thing which might dissuade Boris from such a course of action is the risk he might lose his own seat. If the polls are as biased as you suggest they may actually persuade Boris to go for it when the real facts on the ground don't warrant it. Theresa May had a huge lead in the polls when she called the 2017 election.

There seem to be an awful lot of people in the Commons talking a good game but unwilling to vote no confidence because of the vulnerability of their own seats. That is why I have been suggesting an electoral pact as a way of reassuring the dissidents they will get a clear run at a Brexiteer to maximise the Remain (and their own) vote.

But there seems to be an awful lot of personal animosity and ideological baggage preventing cooperation across party lines, so I doubt that scenario will come to pass. Allowing a no-deal Brexit to happen while clinging on to your own seat for another few months doesn't have much of a heroic ring to it...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:53:05 PM EST
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Whatever statistical games the poll companies are playing to try and adjust their numbers I wouldn't have much confidence extrapolating past behaviour in a very different political environment to future behaviour in a fast moving and high pressure election environment.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 08:33:50 AM EST
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