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My suspicion has been that Boris will try to goad Corbyn into supporting a general election in the belief he can win it, provided it is immediately after Brexit day and before the Brexit chaos really hits. In my view Corbyn should be willing to agree, but only if the election is to be called before Brexit day so that the incoming government can ask for an A.50 extension if that is what they want to do.

The only thing which might dissuade Boris from such a course of action is the risk he might lose his own seat. If the polls are as biased as you suggest they may actually persuade Boris to go for it when the real facts on the ground don't warrant it. Theresa May had a huge lead in the polls when she called the 2017 election.

There seem to be an awful lot of people in the Commons talking a good game but unwilling to vote no confidence because of the vulnerability of their own seats. That is why I have been suggesting an electoral pact as a way of reassuring the dissidents they will get a clear run at a Brexiteer to maximise the Remain (and their own) vote.

But there seems to be an awful lot of personal animosity and ideological baggage preventing cooperation across party lines, so I doubt that scenario will come to pass. Allowing a no-deal Brexit to happen while clinging on to your own seat for another few months doesn't have much of a heroic ring to it...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 08:53:05 PM EST
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Whatever statistical games the poll companies are playing to try and adjust their numbers I wouldn't have much confidence extrapolating past behaviour in a very different political environment to future behaviour in a fast moving and high pressure election environment.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 27th, 2019 at 08:33:50 AM EST
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