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Here is my central scenario. The sequence of events:
1 no-deal Brexit
2 UK election immediately after Brexit before
  1. Boris wins in a landslide
  2. Boris turns authoritarian to manage the disruption of no-deal Brexit

On the Irish border:
  • no-deal Brexit obligates Ireland to erect an external EU border
  • as this cannot he policed and all traffic between Ireland and the rest of the EU is by sea or air anyway, the EU's customs border effectively moves to the airports and seaports of the Republic.
  • Nobody talks about it but in reality Ireland is regulatory in the EU but essentially outside its borders (also see common travel area with UK outside Schengen).

The conditions will be there for a Northwrn Ireland border poll. This is all a result of the UK not having entertained making Northern Ireland a 'special economic area's.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 26th, 2019 at 04:22:17 PM EST

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