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No deal brexit is a done deal. Cummings and Johnston will sail off into the sunset on their brand new yachts c/o the plutocrat banksters who will make a lifetime's bonanza plundering the UK economy.

I doubt boris will hang around for long after 31st October, he'll have done his job

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 28th, 2019 at 07:44:29 PM EST
Pathetic. Next, will the USA reelect Trump?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Aug 28th, 2019 at 07:51:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps over the dead bodies of hundreds of thousands in Iran and around the world. After all America First means everyone else on the planet can take a hike...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Aug 28th, 2019 at 08:03:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We might, although it'll be tougher with what looks like a recession coming up.

We've also got a few centuries of post-empire "the brown people stole our prosperity" grist for whoever is president, dictator, or warlord, depending on how bad climate change gets. Even in the medium term most American liberals aren't actually egalitarian, so they're not going to be peaceful with their loss of status. We've got a near guaranteed stint of fascism coming up in the next few decades, the question is how long it will last.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Aug 28th, 2019 at 08:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am somewhat more optimistic. Read this:

Does anyone understand the 2020 race? This scholar nailed the blue wave -- here's her forecast

The good news is that so long as Trump is in office, negative partisanship gives Democrats an edge, as electoral realignment continues. Rather than fearing Trump's ability to repeat his 2016 upset, on July 1 of this year Bitecofer released her 2020 projection, which shows Democrats winning 278 electoral votes versus 197 for Trump, with several swing states too close to call. Bitecofer also isn't worried about the Democrats losing their House majority. On Aug. 6, Bitecofer released a preliminary list of 18 House seats the Democrats could flip in 2020, nine of them in Texas. The most significant threats that concern Democrats are actually golden opportunities, according to her model.

That's not to say Democrats don't have anything to worry about -- especially in 2022, when the tailwinds of negative partisanship may well be blowing in the other direction. But worrying about the right things, rather than phantoms, is the first step toward deal with them. So I sat down to talk with Bitecofer, in hopes of bringing some sanity and perspective to what is already a bewildering election cycle. This interview has been edited for clarity and length.



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Aug 28th, 2019 at 09:10:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh I agree for this election. I just went on a short medium-term doom rant there. And in this more partisan era we're finally starting to see more leftists in federal office.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Aug 28th, 2019 at 09:48:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2022 is a worry.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 12:05:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have been thinking a bit about post-imperial outcomes.

If look at modern Europe centered empires, we put the ones going through fascism in one pile (Italy, Germany, Spain, Portugal), the ones going through strong man illiberal (but not fascist) rule in an other (Turkey post world war one, and Russia post USSR) and look at what we have left, I think it is basically Netherlands (lost Dutch East India during and in the direct aftermath of world war two), France (lost colonial empire in the decades after world war two), and UK (dito). The first two are arguable depending on whether you include the collaboratist governments during world war two, but if we limit ourselves to fascist movements with mainly domestic support, we have these three cases.

Can any conclusions be drawn from these three cases compared with each other empires to gain insight into how to stear a course clear of fascism? Maybe, but I am not sure what it would be. Though there is probably insights that can be had.

  • How hard it is to uphold liberal democracy when the upper class has decided against it. Thinking mainly about Germany and Spain here. Here there are worrying signs in the US, with op-eds arguing that Trump, Brexit etc are signs of to much democracy.

  • The role of troops with experience of wars in establishing dictatorships. Thinking mainly about Italy, Spain and Germany here. Not all veterans of course, not even most, but the kind that goes to Blackwater (or whatever they are called now).

  • The risks and rewards of running on pulling back the empire. Modern empires has advanced propaganda painting the empire as a force for good. Going against that can be hard, but the propaganda image can also be turned around in claiming that this perticular war is bad, as the locals wants us gone. If we look at France and UK in the 60ies and 70ies, pulling troops out and making peace comes with the risk of coup, but continuing colonial wars is unpopular (because empires in decline tend not to win) and creates the conditions for coups through hugh army budgets, veteran units, troop movements and exercises that can be used to start a coup and a general fear of the enemy that can be redirected internally. Over all, I would say that the right policy for a left wing government is to end the wars quickly upon entering government. Appoint generals who are at least sceptical of the war and give them a tight deadline for pulling out. Make peace and stability if you can, but pull out. Add a peace dividend and settle your veterans.
by fjallstrom on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 11:04:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems to me you are mixing a couple of unrelated things. Empires, and their assembly and disassembly, do not depend on liberal democracies.

The failure of the wealthy to support liberal democracy is, if you ask me, a tactical error; they refuse to acknowledge that the peasants will eventually revolt.

The collapse of empires is probably due to economics. It is doubtful that the UK make a net profit from India over that 250 year long project, for example.

by asdf on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 04:18:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know whether the UK made a net profit out of India, but it certainly impoverished what had been one of the richer countries in the world. Empires can be a net loss to both the conquered and the conquerors, I supposed, but the balance is heavily skewed in favour of the conquerors.

Most empires - I'm thinking Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, Belgian, in particular, were little more than looting operations on behalf of their royal families and associated elites. They also created the military infrastructure and mindset useful to suppress any discontent at home and wage wars against rival empires for control of territories.

You could argue that the world wars were, in part, a response to a situation where a diminishing world had created a world of diminishing returns for the Imperial powers, and with no more "virgin" territory to conquer, they turned to trying to conquer each other.

The current battle between Trump, China and Europe can be seen in similar terms - diminishing world resoources mean that attacking each other is the only source of potential gain. Hell, what has the world come to when you can't even buy Greenland off the Danes? What's a few "Eskimos" or Greenlanders, or whatever they are called, between friends when there are resource to deplete?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 10:25:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greenland lies on the east side of the predicted Northwest Passage when Global Warming really gets going.

Thus Trump's interest.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 05:56:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
lectures 1-20

UCLA Social Sciences | Manas

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 01:51:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know that imperial pasts really contain guides to future success for democracies. Certainly withdrawing from foreign entanglements is a good thing, but to cement a democratic future the government must be made to serve ALL of the people, not just the elites of wealth.

First, a putative reform government has to attain power. That is best accomplished by a credible charismatic leader who motivates previously unmotivated citizens to turn out and vote. Then that government has to deliver, starting with easing the economic pain the vast majority of the population experiences.

Second, recognizing that propaganda works and that rich man elite propaganda has led the country into the situation from which it needs to escape, use propaganda techniques to dispel the ideology that sustained the former, undemocratic regime. FDR and the New Deal did more of the hope aspects but did not adequately dispel the ideologies that supported fascism. Going after those who supported The Wall Street Putsch, including Prescott Bush, Bill Doyle, commander of the Massachusetts American Legion, the bankers, associates of JP Morgan Jr., who tried to recruit General Smedley Butler would have discouraged future such attempts.

Third, direct the legal apparatuses of the country to deal with any lawbreaking that can be found to have been associated with the previous regime. The most noxious vermin will quickly crawl back under their rocks and the most prominent will go to jail.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 05:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Members of the elite don't "go after" each other.  Look how Nixon, Bush, Clinton, and Bush were able to break the law and then walk away from consequences.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 07:38:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some things need to change. The USA is not the Roman Republic and neither were Nixon, Reagan or the Bushes Caesar. The US Senate is not (yet) the Roman Senate. I understand the fear of setting a precedent that one faction attacks the other faction when they get in power. That game was played with lawsuits in the Roman Senate. We do not want a similar dynamic in the USA. But neither can we let lawbreaking become the norm out of fear of partisan reprisal. It is a dilemma we must grasp by the horns and hope to vault over.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 06:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump is a symptom of a larger problem. One would have hoped that outright racism and economic folly and international trade suicide and unilateral treaty withdrawals would have drawn outrage amongst most republicans, but they are all, individually, so frightened of being a.) the target of Trump's wrath on Twitter and b.) the primary system that they are all going along quietly.

As to whether he can get re-elected, everybody I know who was a Trump supporter last time around is an even more enthusiastic Trump supporter now. No amount of information seems to sway them. And the electoral college turns out to be completely useless in practice.

(Note to UK when you are writing down your constitution: you can leave off the electoral college idea.)

The larger problem is that our system allows Trump to get elected. Now imagine a younger, more intelligent, educated, persuasive person--an actual stable genius--with the same sort of underlying personality.

by asdf on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 12:28:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can't do it. Sorry. Not in my lifetime.

Defects here are congenital. Hence ...

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 01:15:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
hmm, A trend in early retirements is building in the House. Have you noticed? I'm not keeping score, but I smell alternative arrangements on the deck of the Titanic. Remember when they all faded to NO-PARTY campaign paraphernalia during Dubya's last term? Like a curtain backdrop for the "tea party" movement?

hmm, rear guard action. That opens a few more seats for DCCC and does nothing to balance the senate, regardless of POTUS 2020 outcome. Certainly does nothing to remedy the nutters Team Trump has installed in the inferior courts.

And retrenchment. If I were so motivated, I'd be monitoring (R) investment down (but not out) ticket in the states from now on. Plausible deniability of Team Trump will cloak the offensive for '22, '24.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 01:43:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Texas GOP is freaking out.

TX GOP number crunchers began predicting a 20% jump in  turnout over 2016 for the 2020 presidential.

Their numbers remodeled the Texas electorate and found some GOP seats would fall victim to their own gerrymander. Worse, even safe red seats could see a competitive challenger, preventing their donations from being generously shared with vulnerable members.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2020 SENATE WHAT NOW?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:19:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends on who the various state parties nominate.  If the DLC/Clinton people are still in charge they'll nominate some dork, as what happened in Kentucky in 2016, and lose


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Voters in Texas will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 3, 2020.

Has Cornyn "retired" or been indicted yet? No.
Dork endorsements thus far? M.J. "certified badass" Hagar, possibly Castro or Beto? Either of then quit POTUS yet?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 04:24:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
HOLD THE GOS PHONE ...

Georgia Republican Senator Will Retire This Year

The November 2020 ballot in Georgia will include a special election for the remaining two years of Isakson's term in addition to [David] Perdue's race for another six-year term.

It's a doubly tantalizing target for Democrats, who increasingly believe that Georgia, which has become less rural [?] and less white [?] in recent decades, due in part to the growth of Atlanta, stands on the verge of becoming a swing state after roughly two [!!] decades of leaning solidly Republican.

evidentally one POTUS = 2 chambers control by the GOP
It's an uphill battle for Georgia Democrats, who haven't elected a governor or U.S. senator since 1998. Bill Clinton was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win here, in 1992.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 05:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Republican Jim Sensenbrenner announces he won't seek reelection
Sensenbrenner won reelection [WI-5] in 2018 by a margin of 62 percent to 38 percent over his Democratic opponent.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 01:52:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
2020 CENSUS allocation and map draws WHEN NOW?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:21:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Texas GOP is freaking out.

As well they should. Orange County, CA, is their scary example. If you let a bunch of suburbanites into your state, they want liberal stuff like roads and schools and no crazy gun people in the grocery store. Colorado, historically a republican stronghold, has turned solidly blue despite some very conservative enclaves.

Bottom line is that the conservative strategy is self-defeating. If you let a bunch of developers have the freedom to do whatever they want, per libertarian philosophy, they build sprawling housing developments full of middle class voters who vote against conservatives. Oops.

by asdf on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:22:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One reason the GOP was wiped-out in Orange County was the increase in Asian population who don't give a damn about Southern White Values: bigotry, evangelicalism, racism, hatred of education, etc.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:26:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
uh huh. That's a strange way to spell Texass.

Could the other reason beeeee Team Trump's new SALT cap?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:51:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So you're telling me Trump tax cuts aren't really helping the middle class, especially in blue states?  I'm shocked, truly shocked!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 05:06:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nope. White OC voters are telling you they "survived" the housing boom and bust and they want their mortgage and property tax deductions back.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 05:24:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DNC CPAs

< wipes tears >




Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 09:52:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
California Cohort of Petty Landlords

Orange County [FL] Property Appraiser Rick Singh
An Explanation of the "Save Our Homes" Amendment and Its Effects
< wipes tears >
Meanwhile in "southern California" man-bun country...
Trump's tax cut turns politics on its head in Southern California
Dems push for lower rate, while GOP leaders defend a code that raises bills for many: "Two former GOP House members who represented parts of Orange County in 2017 -- Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa and Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista -- voted against Trump's tax plan because it would boost taxes for many of their constituents."

Federal tax reform has helped, not hurt, Californians
"It's because the old federal system SUBSIDIZES California's state taxes, which are too high. Blame Sacramento, not Washington."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 04:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
oil vs ag

DOJ | Houston, Texas Agrees to Implement Comprehensive Measures
$4.4M penalty split two ways.
Sewer spills put city under EPA scrutiny
zip code opposition?
Houston City Council OKs $2 billion consent decree overhauling sewer system
smells like jobs saved or created
Wastewater Consent Decree
"On July 16, 2019, this draft consent decree regarding the City's wastewater system was released to the public."
U.S. vs Dallass

"suburbanites" vs urbanites: That's how DNC is going to liberate Texass?
m'k.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:43:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Blue Screen of Death" Campaign 2022

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:25:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Johnny Issackson of Georgia has announced a December retirement for what seem quite legitimate health reasons. But this means both Senate seats from Georgia now must be defended by Republicans in 2020 and one again in 2022.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:34:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DNC gonna clone an Abrams, huh. She would have won if it weren't for that meddling secretary of state. What was his name? o. right. Kemp.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 09:52:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DNC was never really Abrams' friend, but they would like even one of her to run for the Senate.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 06:54:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You know that. I know that. Does she know that?
< reckeless eyeballin' >
I don't know about that.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 05:52:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She don't care.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 06:42:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Too soon to call that play.

Certainly, the DCCC isn't criticizing Team Trump budget deficit, attributable to DOD or TAX CUTS, the Fed, or tariffs. They're not deriding Team Trump aggression toward China or EU "allies." DNC doesn't do that kind of foreign policy since everyone but the "liberals" denounced (Obama) TTIP and TTP.

The chamber pot is quibbling about SUBSIDIES, not for "farm," food stamps, housing, or "climate" but for "border" controls. Riding the wave of faux prosperity may well leave them stranded on the shore of NEW! DNC voters come 2020 convention season.

Look, best Anyone Buttrump PR in 18 months.
Farmers' loyalty to Trump tested over new corn-ethanol rules
oil vs ag in the booth

Trump has three more quarters to pacify constituencies in states where the DNC has no back bench, and the POTUS nominees have no headline, countervailing "deals" to offer.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 02:41:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The underlying personality is severe narcissistic personality disorder. Less severe might make him more effective, but, for the very worst result, have someone who is a sociopath. The USA is fortunate to have had Trump - fortunate in the sense that his NPD is so debilitating as to make him ineffective and his own worst enemy. Trump demonstrates the serious vulnerability of the US electorate to such types.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 04:38:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And, as did FDR with his four terms, he opens up the possibility of some constructive re-arrangement of the American system after being kicked out of office next year.

Assuming the idiotic democrats don't run Ed Muskie Joe Biden.

by asdf on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 04:46:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the DNC is pushing the worst of their slime. They make even crazy Trump look good.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 02:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not entirely convinced.

The mistake was to do this too early. It gives the opposition time to get itself together politically, for legal challenges to be heard, for Bercow to get really really mad, and for popular opposition to organise mass protests.

And not incidentally, for the Queen to take action behind the scenes - if she chooses to.

The schedule for a VONC and pro-tem leader is now very tight, but it's still doable.

The obvious next step is to expect further outrageous attacks on democracy. Which will - of course - happen.

But so what? Johnson is vulnerable to attack from all possible directions now. Only one needs to succeed, and it's all over.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 28th, 2019 at 10:35:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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