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Excellent comment which gets to the heart of the matter. The other complication: what happens to the 14 days if Parliament is prorogued in the meantime?

If I were Corbyn I would call a meeting of the main anti-no deal players - the same as the Church House meeting attendance plus a few Tory dissidents - and say the following, (having given everyone else a chance to let off some steam first):

  1. Attempts to find a legislative route to blocking no deal are like to fail because of insufficient consensus as to the best technical route to take, insufficient parliamentary time, and the ability of Boris to frustrate the intentions of the lawmakers, by defying conventions or setting new precedents if required.

  2. Attempts by dissident MPs to avoid a general election (because of the vulnerability of their seats) are likely to prove futile because Boris is likely to call a general election in any case, immediately after Brexit day, at the height of public indignation at any foreigner interference in Britain's freedom to trade with whoever it wants, where it wants, on its own terms, and without let or hindrance. (We'll show those Frenchies who's boss).

  3. Basically Boris can't be trusted to implement Parliament's will no matter how clearly expressed and all legal remedies will be moot by Brexit day.

  4. The main obstacles to Parliament acting effectively are (i) lack of consensus as to who would make an acceptable alternate caretaker PM, and (ii) the fear of individual law makers that they will lose their seats. Corbyn can address these concerns by (a) Proposing a small cross party sub-committee to come up with the name of a caretaker PM at least minimally acceptable to all, and (b) proposing an electoral pact whereby the  anti-no deal candidate best placed at the 2017 election (effectively including all current MPs) is given a clear run at the Tory candidates. (c) The election has to be held before Brexit day to ensure the Brexit party still exists to split the Leave vote and (d) all leaders present commit to campaigning for whoever that best placed anti-no deal candidate is to maximise, consolidate and unify the anti-no deal vote.

  5. Corbyn will remind the meeting that he, as Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition, has the sole right to call a VONC but that he will only do so if assured of their votes and the success of the process. He will also remind them that as Leader of the largest opposition party any choice of interim PM has to be acceptable to him.  

  6. Finally Corbyn may claim (I don't know how sustainable this claim is), that as Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition, he has the sole right of access to the Queen (other than the PM) to advise her that Boris has lost the confidence of the house, that their choice of PM has gained the confidence of the house, and that Her Majesty is constitutionally obliged to dismiss Boris and appoint their nominee as PM even if Boris refuses to resign.

  7. Basically nothing effective can happen without Corbyn, and he cannot be effective without the support of the dissidents and the rest of the opposition. An electoral pact is the only way to safeguard their individual and collective futures and ensure no deal doesn't happen. An A.50 extension is the only way to ensure a no-deal crash out doesn't happen, and getting rid of Boris is the only way to ensure an a.50 extension is sought, accepted, and implemented.

  8. An electoral pact doesn't imply any policy convergence or alignment on anything other than opposing a no deal Brexit. It doesn't imply an alliance or coalition after the election, but does require opposition party leaders present a united front to the electorate to ensure the anti-no deal candidate maximises and consolidates the anti-no deal vote.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 09:59:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't it be interesting if (say) Corbyn, Bercow, Sturgeon, Swinson, Hammond and other party leaders plus whoever is the choice for interim PM had to march up to Balmoral to advise the Queen that Boris had lost the confidence of the House and that she should appoint their nominee as his successor?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 10:13:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That can't happen without the LibDems and the LibDems hate Corbyn.  In a way this is a 'Kindlier, Gentler" version of the Nazi take-over in Germany with the same dynamic: the two parties who could have stopped it hated each other more than their common enemy.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:19:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are also describing Italy. If not immediately now, at least when the PD/5* coalition eventually implodes and Salvini's goons win the elections.
by Bernard on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 06:40:35 PM EST
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Serious question: what makes a PD/5* implosion inevitable or unavoidable?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 06:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
5* has defined itself by the reject of "politics as usual" and most career politicians of past governments, including Matteo Renzi. PD is pro-austerity, 5* is anti-austerity; PD is relatively liberal on immigration, 5* is closer to Salvini in that regard; PD is dye-in-the-wool parliamentary democracy, 5* leans towards "direct democracy" via their Rousseau platform.

They hate each other. The only thing they have in common for now is their fear of Salvini's Lega eating their lunch if new elections are called now. Not the foundations of a solid and long lasting coalition.

by Bernard on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 07:19:26 PM EST
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Yet it appears that both 5* and PD have recognized that the their other potential partner is better than the alternative of letting Salvini make significant electoral gains any time soon. Perhaps PD will move a bit towards 5* on anti-austerity, as relieving economic pressure on the bottom 80% would undercut Salvini, 5* can move towards PD on immigration, and they can compromise on making voter registration and voting easier. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 05:29:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An alternative arrangement might be for 5* to provide PD with its own version of Rousseau to use as they see fit.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 05:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 10:29:53 AM EST
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"...and they can compromise on making voter registration and voting easier."
I don't understand this. Voter registration for everyone is automatic at 18. It's not the States.
On another note, the five-star party had its electronic vote and 79% voted for a coalition gov with the PD.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 08:02:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A long series of IF statements all to be agreed in what, three days?
by asdf on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 03:25:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 29th, 2019 at 09:23:10 PM EST
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Boris is likely to call a general election

We keep hearing this, including in the media. Agreed, Boris would like this, but the Fixed-term Parliaments Act was passed to prevent governments calling snap elections whenever they thought it was to their advantage. The PM no longer has this prerogative. She/he must obtain the agreement of the Commons by a 2/3 majority.

Now, Corbyn may be raring to go for an election, and thus bring Labour votes behind a government proposal. He might also realize that he holds the key to election/no election. How about Boris continuing in power on a shoestring while the deleterious effects of No-deal begin to make themselves felt?

Boris's only other chance would be to bring about a vote of no confidence on himself. 14 days later, if no alternative majority was found, a general election would take place automatically. But, if an alternative majority came together, that one would blow up in his face. A lot would depend on how many Tories he really pisses off.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 11:57:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which puts Corbyn in the pivotal position. He can threaten the Tory and Independent dissidents that he will support a Boris general election call - thereby guaranteeing many will lose their seats - unless they provide him with a viable alternative, which is basically to support his nominee for PM in a "government of national unity".

I doubt the current dissident strategy of going the legislative route (basically to avoid a general election) is going to be effective, either through lack of parliamentary time,or because Boris will simply ignore whatever law they pass.

By mid-October, when it becomes clear the EU council has rebuffed all attempts at re-negotiation, again, the only alternative to a no-deal crash out will be a VONC and an alternative PM.

By then, the dissidents will also have lost all leverage on Corbyn. He can insist he becomes the caretaker PM, and they will have to decide which they hate most - no deal Brexit, or Corbyn as temp PM.

That should concentrate minds wonderfully.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 12:24:40 PM EST
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Do you really think the typical British MP is capable of concentrating his or her mind, individually or collectively? The last few years have indicated otherwise.
Hunger and physical danger works pretty well to help focus fuzzy thoughts, but political and economic necessity seems to be a bit abstract for the well compensated MP.
by Andhakari on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 01:32:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The threat of losing their seats and associated emoluments in an imminent general elections usually works...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 03:43:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't this go the other way too, with proposals for a caretaker government to call an election? The caretaker PM would need 2/3 majority or lose a no confidence vote, with no replacement. So there could be a no confidence vote against Boris, followed by Corbyn who requests a A50 extension and then tries to call an election only for it to fail, Corbyn losing a no confidence vote and Boris voted in?

Tory remainers and soft Brexiteers plus the remains of CHUK would be the swing voters in this scenario, wanting to avoid both a no deal Brexit and an election.

by fjallstrom on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 11:50:30 AM EST
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I think it only requires a majority of Parliament to confirm a new PM. Could be wrong.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 03:56:46 AM EST
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