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Boris is likely to call a general election

We keep hearing this, including in the media. Agreed, Boris would like this, but the Fixed-term Parliaments Act was passed to prevent governments calling snap elections whenever they thought it was to their advantage. The PM no longer has this prerogative. She/he must obtain the agreement of the Commons by a 2/3 majority.

Now, Corbyn may be raring to go for an election, and thus bring Labour votes behind a government proposal. He might also realize that he holds the key to election/no election. How about Boris continuing in power on a shoestring while the deleterious effects of No-deal begin to make themselves felt?

Boris's only other chance would be to bring about a vote of no confidence on himself. 14 days later, if no alternative majority was found, a general election would take place automatically. But, if an alternative majority came together, that one would blow up in his face. A lot would depend on how many Tories he really pisses off.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 11:57:35 AM EST
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Which puts Corbyn in the pivotal position. He can threaten the Tory and Independent dissidents that he will support a Boris general election call - thereby guaranteeing many will lose their seats - unless they provide him with a viable alternative, which is basically to support his nominee for PM in a "government of national unity".

I doubt the current dissident strategy of going the legislative route (basically to avoid a general election) is going to be effective, either through lack of parliamentary time,or because Boris will simply ignore whatever law they pass.

By mid-October, when it becomes clear the EU council has rebuffed all attempts at re-negotiation, again, the only alternative to a no-deal crash out will be a VONC and an alternative PM.

By then, the dissidents will also have lost all leverage on Corbyn. He can insist he becomes the caretaker PM, and they will have to decide which they hate most - no deal Brexit, or Corbyn as temp PM.

That should concentrate minds wonderfully.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 12:24:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you really think the typical British MP is capable of concentrating his or her mind, individually or collectively? The last few years have indicated otherwise.
Hunger and physical danger works pretty well to help focus fuzzy thoughts, but political and economic necessity seems to be a bit abstract for the well compensated MP.
by Andhakari on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 01:32:44 PM EST
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The threat of losing their seats and associated emoluments in an imminent general elections usually works...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 30th, 2019 at 03:43:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't this go the other way too, with proposals for a caretaker government to call an election? The caretaker PM would need 2/3 majority or lose a no confidence vote, with no replacement. So there could be a no confidence vote against Boris, followed by Corbyn who requests a A50 extension and then tries to call an election only for it to fail, Corbyn losing a no confidence vote and Boris voted in?

Tory remainers and soft Brexiteers plus the remains of CHUK would be the swing voters in this scenario, wanting to avoid both a no deal Brexit and an election.

by fjallstrom on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 11:50:30 AM EST
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I think it only requires a majority of Parliament to confirm a new PM. Could be wrong.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 03:56:46 AM EST
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