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There is zero chance of Corbyn being able to force his version of Brexit - whatever that means - past Parliament and the voters. So there will be a PV, and Brexit will lose.

Corbyn may possibly believe otherwise, but it's clearly not going to happen.

Far more worrying is the prospect of Boris winning a larger majority in the next election. That would more or less guarantee No Deal, and all of the scheduled chaos and horror.

The only upside would be that no one under the age of forty would ever vote Tory. But it might be decades to the next election, so that would be a Pyrrhic victory at best.

I take Helen's point about the general uselessness of Emperor Boris and his cronies, but unfortunately the history of coups in other countries suggests that competence is not necessary for success.

The British aren't very good at mass protests, so all Boris has to do is keep most of the army onside - and their loyalty is probably a given, even after the cuts.

The alternative would be a Corbyn government, and the nation's military leaders aren't interested in that.

A month from now we'll either be in the middle of an election, or in the throes of an outright coup. I'd like to be more optimistic about the former, but I suspect the latter is still a real possibility.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 14th, 2019 at 04:49:49 PM EST
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such as ... ? Trying to identify the relevant third party in this case. For a friend.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Aug 14th, 2019 at 05:47:57 PM EST
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the history of coups in other countries suggests that competence is not necessary for success

You don't need a coup to demonstrate that! Exhibit no. 1 is in the US of A right now.

I think predictions of a coup or a revolution or a need for army support are overblown. The most likely thing is for the EU to give an extension, either in response to another request, or as a favor to the UK to give more time for them to come to their senses.

Or, maybe there will be a no-deal Brexit. Guess what, people will have to cope. There will be grumbling and deaths and demonstrations and politicking, lots of blame thrown around--some pointed at the EU which won't care, a broad recession, unemployment, etc. Back to the 1970s, which were survived by most people.

A question in my mind is what would happen after that. Suppose Corbyn's no confidence vote fails, there's a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, and general chaos after. Lots of emergency legislation, ratcheting up of police powers, deficit spending, etc. Boris survives and holds the next election a few years from now, and by then maybe has things under control enough to stay.

And then what? Is Labour going to change its stripes and become a solidly pro-EU organization, working hard for a "rejoin" effort? Are the Liberals going to switch back over to supporting the Conservatives? Are the Conservatives going to use the disruption as an excuse for more austerity, more handouts to the rich, etc.?

It seems like there is a lot of discussion about what might happen leading up to Brexit, but not much about the possibilities after. Cliff edge, then what???

by asdf on Thu Aug 15th, 2019 at 12:03:03 AM EST
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No one knows because all of the possible outcomes are impossibly different. So it's impossibly difficult to make a predictions - especially about the future.

And No Deal would be much worse than the 70s, because ND wouldn't just take the UK back a few decades, but would tear the lid off the UK's internal contradictions.

The UK's problems are structural. As a country, it absolutely lacks any kind of long-term goals for the 21st century.

The only people making plans are the Brexiters, and those plans are insane. Remain just wants the status quo, and the status quo isn't going to be enough now.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Aug 15th, 2019 at 11:35:22 AM EST
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