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Rafael Behr in the Guardian: The Fixed-term Parliaments Act gives the Commons 14 days to organise a replacement when an incumbent government is defeated in a no-confidence vote. Who else is going to lead that administration if not the leader of Her Majesty's opposition? In constitutional terms he is the obvious candidate; probably the only candidate. But in the minds of scores of MPs he is not. His past equivocations over Europe are not the reason, or at least not the only reason. Pro-European Tory rebels, Liberal Democrats, the rag-tag platoon of independents and semi-autonomous tribes of Labour MPs have spent months fretting about ways to thwart a hard Brexit, apparently ready to pull every procedural lever and contemplate all manner of unorthodox coalitions. Not much has been excluded from those considerations, except for a tacit prohibition on any route that makes a prime minister of the current Labour leader. Their horror of Corbyn is equal to - or greater than - their horror of Brexit. That has been so well understood by the participants in the discussion that few have felt much need to articulate it. Corbyn's letter now obliges them to spell it out. (...) There is something disingenuous about the discussions among MPs about a "government of national unity"(GNU) to avert a no-deal Brexit. It is predicated on concepts of nation and unity that don't include those who are desperate to leave the EU. Those who voted leave are broadly satisfied with the government they currently have. It is, in truth, a euphemism for a model of technocratic, centre-facing liberal administration defined as much by a rejection of Corbynism as by revulsion at the Trumpian nationalist character that Brexit has acquired. (...) The Labour leader knows this and he is calling the whole GNU bluff. If a government falls, the opposition leader is the next in line to have a go and, if that can't be arranged, there is an election. That is how it works. There might be many reasons why MPs do not want an opposition leader to take charge - that is their constitutional right, too - reasons of tactical political advantage and reasons of conscience. But MPs have not all been candid about what those reasons are; why it is that so many find Corbyn as toxic as Brexit. Their problem is that there aren't a lot of other options. And the laws of political motion are working against them.
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act gives the Commons 14 days to organise a replacement when an incumbent government is defeated in a no-confidence vote. Who else is going to lead that administration if not the leader of Her Majesty's opposition? In constitutional terms he is the obvious candidate; probably the only candidate.
But in the minds of scores of MPs he is not. His past equivocations over Europe are not the reason, or at least not the only reason. Pro-European Tory rebels, Liberal Democrats, the rag-tag platoon of independents and semi-autonomous tribes of Labour MPs have spent months fretting about ways to thwart a hard Brexit, apparently ready to pull every procedural lever and contemplate all manner of unorthodox coalitions. Not much has been excluded from those considerations, except for a tacit prohibition on any route that makes a prime minister of the current Labour leader. Their horror of Corbyn is equal to - or greater than - their horror of Brexit. That has been so well understood by the participants in the discussion that few have felt much need to articulate it. Corbyn's letter now obliges them to spell it out.
(...)
There is something disingenuous about the discussions among MPs about a "government of national unity"(GNU) to avert a no-deal Brexit. It is predicated on concepts of nation and unity that don't include those who are desperate to leave the EU. Those who voted leave are broadly satisfied with the government they currently have. It is, in truth, a euphemism for a model of technocratic, centre-facing liberal administration defined as much by a rejection of Corbynism as by revulsion at the Trumpian nationalist character that Brexit has acquired.
The Labour leader knows this and he is calling the whole GNU bluff. If a government falls, the opposition leader is the next in line to have a go and, if that can't be arranged, there is an election. That is how it works. There might be many reasons why MPs do not want an opposition leader to take charge - that is their constitutional right, too - reasons of tactical political advantage and reasons of conscience. But MPs have not all been candid about what those reasons are; why it is that so many find Corbyn as toxic as Brexit. Their problem is that there aren't a lot of other options. And the laws of political motion are working against them.
many find Corbyn as toxic as Brexit
If that is their thinking, there is no hope. Prime Minister is a temporary position, can be revoked or renewed at almost any time, has some political power but works within the existing state institutions. Brexit, on the other hand, is a permanent change, subject to possible renewal on a time scale that probably exceeds a decade, and has reams of impacts that are not even partially under the control of the state.
Corbyn should be made PM in order to back out of Brexit, then he should be replaced by whoever can get the job. The tactics at this point should have nothing to do with whether you like any particular politician, they are (or should be) entirely about avoiding Brexit.
Seems to me, naive American, that politicians saying "we oppose Brexit but will not support Corbyn" are simply Brexiteers.
Rationally it shouldn't matter all that much who is the temporary caretaker PM as long as he/she requests and receives an A.50 extension long enough to call an election and possibly a referendum thereafter - and then actually calls the election.
Someone like Ken Clarke would be ideal to attract dissident Tories because of his Tory pedigree, ministerial experience, and (presumably) lack of personal ambition. Conceivably he could even offer not to stand in the election so he can "focus exclusively on his caretaker PM responsibilities" and not pose a threat to anyone else's PM ambitions.
However Corbyn is also in an exceptionally strong negotiating position, because only he can deliver the vast bulk of the votes required to elect any temporary PM. He may therefore feel no need to reward another Tory and can satisfy the minimal Lib Dem/dissident Tory demand that any temporary PM be not Corbyn by nominating his own choice as long term successor as leader of the Labour Party.
I don't know who his choice of potential successor might be, but provided it's not a hard-left choice also unacceptable to dissident Tory and Labour MPs but widely acceptable within the Labour party (and ideally the wider public), it doesn't much matter who it is. All anti-no deal Brexit MPs would be let off the hook of having to support Corbyn and be able to rally to the support of "anybody but Corbyn or Boris" on the grounds that it is a temporary appointment in the name of a greater cause. Index of Frank's Diaries
Corbyn has committed to a clear plan:
MPs who are against no deal may refuse to accept that plan under Corbyn, but it would be extraordinary if they managed to cobble a majority together under anyone else - given that a rejected Corbyn is not obliged to play ball, and he commands by far the largest chunk of opposition votes. He therefore has a quite reasonable chance of success. If Swinson has to eat her hat, no problem, politicians do that all the time. Some people just have to decide what it is they want. And, if they blow this chance, then they will have been objective allies of no-deal.
But of course, don't sell the bearskin before you've killed the bear. Boris first has to lose a vote of confidence. Things are going to slide, slide in all directions Won't be nothing Nothing you can measure anymore L. Cohen
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