Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I would say that in the current Anglo-American political systems, where "break all the rules" is the rule, the possibilities offered here are not nearly radical enough.

Trump has shown that a strong executive can command fealty from even the most powerful and wealthy people if the right pressure is applied. There is zero sign of a collapse of the republican party in the US, despite his incredibly long list of failures. One should not expect a collapse of the Tories if Brexit fails OR if it succeeds: the politicians will find plenty of arguments to justify ongoing support in either case.

Johnson has a pile of options, it seems, from my naive viewpoint. For example, if the current proroguing of parliament is found illegal, just prorogue it again. If the current proroguing expires, just prorogue it some more.

Or, claim an emergency situation due to, say, a flood from hurricane , thus justifying special PM privileges to control government. The Civil Contingencies Act seems to provide the necessary features.

Or, temporarily move the PM's office to Northern Ireland to avoid interference by troublesome law enforcement officers.

Or, call up the POTUS and ask for some ridiculous proclamation that will stir up all sides, perhaps something like "the US will be buying Scotland for conversion to a golfing estate."

Or get out the campaign bus and double down on the impossible promises. It works for Trump.

Once you break out of the tradition and good behavior and reasonable proposal zone, there are plenty of possibilities.

by asdf on Wed Sep 18th, 2019 at 03:46:10 PM EST
Once you get one assumption wrong, an array of alternate futures present themselves, and for each of those alternates, a further array of downstream scenarios present themselves.

You can analyse yourself into paralysis if you try to cover all eventualities, so I have focused on the most likely outcome at each point in the decision tree conscious that even one minor error can result in a very different array of outcomes.

No one end outcome seems very likely, all are a consequence of a string of events that are inherently unusual or unprecedented even if each individual decision seems logical enough. In hindsight many will claim to have foreseen all and indeed claim the outcome was obvious all along.

I look forward to reading lots of "histories" of Brexit claiming everything was the inevitable outcome because blah blah blah. The reality is nobody "knows" but strategists and actors have to make predictions so they can prepare for whatever outcomes eventuate, and with luck, anticipate them and influence them to their advantage.

There are lots of things I would be telling Corbyn right now if I were an advisor and his objective was to be a successful and effective PM... doesn't mean I would always get it right.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 18th, 2019 at 05:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]