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Meanwhile, Johnson is apparently going to try the same "divide and rule" strategy of trying to negotiate with individual European leaders, in the belief that what hasn't worked for the last two years will suddenly work now: Brexit: Boris Johnson's plan to bypass Brussels for new deal
Boris Johnson is to attempt a last-ditch charm offensive on EU leaders to get a Brexit deal over the line, after delivering his proposals for a new withdrawal agreement to Brussels as early as the end of this week.

With EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier viewed in Downing Street as a stickler for rules who will be hard to shift from the deal struck with Theresa May, Mr Johnson is keen to speak with key European leaders who may be ready to show flexibility ahead of the crunch Brussels summit on 17 October.

[...]

News that negotiator David Frost has finalised a legal text of the UK proposals - said by a senior government source to be "game changing" - emerged as ministers attending cabinet admitted that they were not absolutely sure what the PM plans to do if his hopes of a deal fall flat.

I guess they'll find out. The EU hasn't budged on its "negotiate with the official negotiator" policy, and there doesn't seem any reason why they'd start now.

by IdiotSavant on Mon Sep 30th, 2019 at 11:42:35 PM EST
'4 non-papers' leak: UK proposes customs posts on both sides of border in bid to replace backstop
panned by audience, reviewers, prepper desk
Central Bank urges customers of financial services companies here to check that the companies are ready for a no-deal Brexit
"Selling financial products or services without the necessary authorisation is a criminal offence and the regulator has warned that appropriate action will be taken against such firms if they continue to conduct business in Ireland."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Oct 1st, 2019 at 01:52:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris is not stupid enough to negotiate Brexit with national leaders. No, he is trying to persuade one of them to veto the impending request for an A50 extension.

In exchange for some sort of kickback, political or otherwise, no doubt.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Oct 1st, 2019 at 11:49:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The view from Kenya:

by Bernard on Tue Oct 1st, 2019 at 08:45:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
secret deal

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Oct 2nd, 2019 at 05:09:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Q : When is a backstop not a backstop?
A : in 2025, apparently...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Oct 2nd, 2019 at 08:00:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well that went down like a cup of cold sick: Irish officials dismiss Boris Johnson's Brexit offer as 'unacceptable'.

I am not surprised. What's surprising is that the UK thought it would ever fly.

by IdiotSavant on Wed Oct 2nd, 2019 at 09:44:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The purpose is not to have the offer accepted. The purpose is to be able to blame the EU for everything going pear shaped post no-deal Brexit. The present PM has had a very good training during his years as the Torygraph correspondent in Brussels.
by Bernard on Wed Oct 2nd, 2019 at 06:49:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The questions now:

How many people are buying the Boris BS?

What are the demographics of who is buying the BS and who isn't.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 2nd, 2019 at 09:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It all depends on Parliament stopping Boris from making a no-deal Brexit and then what happens after that is achieved. If a no-deal happens Boris wins. If a second referendum supports Leave Boris wins. If a second referendum supports Remain Boris probably goes down in flames.

If a general election occurs in November Boris has a good chance. If a general election is held next spring Boris's chance is not so good. But Boris could well ask for a November-December election if he is able. The biggest factor is likely to be turnout. Who is energized and who is discouraged.

Failing all else, perhaps the Queen will dismiss Boris after October 19 and ask Corbyn to form a government. Then it depends on how big of a wrecker Jo Swinson is willing to be. A sad state of affairs.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 04:03:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there any precedent for the Queen actually dismissing a PM? Have they all not resigned before they even got to the palace?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 09:07:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
While there is no precedent for the Queen dismissing a PM, there is also no precedent for many of this PM's actions. Howerver there was a report in the Guardian about the Queen seeking legal advice on so doing:
Can Queen Elizabeth sack Boris Johnson?  FT
At this strange moment in UK politics, Buckingham Palace could have a role to play

There is an adage in UK constitutional law that the crown is less important for the power it has than for the power it prevents others from having. In practice this means, or should mean, that the prime minister may be head of government but does not have absolute control. There are certain residual powers retained by the monarch.




"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 03:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All these options exclude the most likely scenario: the EU gives a six month extension and the chaos continues. Everybody loses.
by asdf on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 01:14:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or Brexit dies and everyone wins.

How many more PMs will be willing to throw themselves into its maw?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 01:22:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU cannot "give a six months extension" without the UK government formally asking for it.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 01:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is it bound to do by law.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 01:28:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not quite correct.

The Council modified duration of period (publicly) requested by May.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 01:30:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Documentary evidence
PM letters to European Council President; European Council Decisions taken in agreement with the United Kingdom extending the period under Article 50(3)TEU
in A few first principles.

Council modified request; PM agreed to modification; PM "laid" agreed modification before [Crown in] parliament for approval; See EUWA2018, EUWA-2-2019 provisions,  linked under Applicable law.

UK gov is a "price taker."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 03:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some people "lose" EU rights to which they were accustomed. Some don't; those persons have already determined how to permanently or conditionally reserve EU rights.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 01:39:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU has stated that only reasons they would grant a further extension is if there were some major political development in the UK. A second referendum or an early election would almost certainly qualify. Anything else...?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 03:23:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who in the UK objects to earl election or referendum?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 07:50:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
None of those in the Remain coalition want an election before an extension has been secured. Some have objected to an early election before a second referendum has been conducted. The Liberal Democrat leader, Jo Swineson, has proposed just using a Remain majority to withdrea the Article 50 letter

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 4th, 2019 at 03:26:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Enough for there to be blood in the streets, same as here in the US.
by rifek on Sun Oct 6th, 2019 at 08:08:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Be it on their heads.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 7th, 2019 at 03:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exhibit A:

A Leaked Tory Memo Ordered MPs To Call The EU "Crazy" If It Rejects Boris Johnson's Brexit Proposals - Buzzfeed

In a sign of the tough rhetoric that Johnson's government can be expected to use if talks with Brussels break down, MPs were told that if the EU refuses to negotiate on this point, then Conservatives should say that it is Brussels that ended talks, that a deal is "impossible", and that the EU's policy is "crazy".
by Bernard on Thu Oct 3rd, 2019 at 06:54:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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