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Any decision by the Council to allow or refuse any UK request for a further A.50 extension is a political rather than a legal decision and is at the Council's complete discretion. We can't be certain what decision they would make, indeed it is remarkable two extensions have already been granted, given the requirement for unanimity.

All I can do as a commentator is note they have previously indicated a willingness to consider an extension to facilitate a democratic event, and an unwillingness to be seen as responsible for precipitating a no deal Brexit which will cause a great deal of economic damage to the EU as well as the UK.

That said, Donald Tusk did implore the UK not to "waste the time" given by the last extension, which was longer than some wanted and resisted by Macron, in particular. So ATinNM is correct to warn another extension is not inevitable.

It all depends whether the EU Council feels that progress is being made in resolving the political impasse in the UK, and my Diary makes the case that progress is being made and could result in a final decision one way or the other within 6 months.

I suggest it would be in the interests of the EU to let that process run its course unless Boris Johnson remains in control and continues in his attempts to bully and denigrate the EU. If nothing else, Brexit must be providing endless amusement in EU Capitals and provides a cautionary tale for any and all others who might seek to go there...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 05:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You said that six months ago and the year preceding. Has nothing changed to UK, EU relations?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 09:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Remarkably little has changed since Theresa May agreed the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU in November 2018. No serious EU/UK negotiations have taken place since, and the UK parliament has been unable to agree on anything except that it is against a no-deal Brexit, and now wants another A.50 extension in the absence of a Brexit deal acceptable to both parties.

While this might appear as just a stagnant impasse, we have seen a gradual disintegration of the UK political system, and particularly the Conservative party. So there is an argument for the EU to simply wait this process out by agreeing further extensions.

In Ireland the strategy may be to try and wait out the demise of the current DUP dependent Tory government in the hope that the next UK government won't have a problem with Customs controls down the Irish sea.

All in all the EU can take a Napoleonic approach: don't interrupt your enemy while they are busy making mistakes

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 10:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
no

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Sep 6th, 2019 at 12:09:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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