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Agreed, although EU leaders have stated they would support a further extension to facilitate a "democratic event" such as a change of Government, general election or referendum. It is quite conceivable they would refuse if Bojo is still poncing around seeking to cause trouble and blackguarding the EU, but might change their mind if a caretaker government is in power charged with coming up with proposals for a referendum.

The EU will try to avoid being responsible for a no-deal Brexit if at all possible, and there is always the chance the whole Brexit fiasco will run out of steam if they wait long enough. Bojo may be wrong about the EU always compromising at the last minute but fudge and procrastination are always on the menu.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 02:51:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The scenario for change in government could hardly be construed as a "democratic event." According to APsplainin' yesterday, 354 MPs voted for the election bill, 298-56. 296 MPs abstained. This performance by the legislature is not an affirmative defense of a polity, customarily understood to constitute democratic representation in government.

Indeed this Corbyn's two-week-coup rationale (to petition EU extension) leaps moot litigation preceding parliament's suspension, scheduled

no earlier than Monday 9 September and no later than Thursday 12 September, until Monday 14 October.
Conveniently, the Supreme Court schedule review of the "rolled-up" questions 16 September. Perhaps you expect it to liberate parliament from 10 Downing. You do not mention.

Moreover, these procedures did not resolve any questions pertinent to EU/ECJ stipulations of deadline extension of the no negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement period. An act to "block no-deal" by UK does not bind Eu nor merit contemplation in the court's opinions of business pursuant to A50 resolution. Rather they realize potential abuses of appeal under the TFEU, acknowledged by the court. In short, UK has exhausted "election" dispensation (referendum, general, EP) twice previously and do not not now aver a people's vote either to ratify the WA or revoke A50. Accordingly, EU27 is implementing separation from UK and sloppy pretexts of either political or commercial union.

I look forward to those diary entries which invite half as much scrutiny of sloppy IE and EU politics.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 05:06:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any decision by the Council to allow or refuse any UK request for a further A.50 extension is a political rather than a legal decision and is at the Council's complete discretion. We can't be certain what decision they would make, indeed it is remarkable two extensions have already been granted, given the requirement for unanimity.

All I can do as a commentator is note they have previously indicated a willingness to consider an extension to facilitate a democratic event, and an unwillingness to be seen as responsible for precipitating a no deal Brexit which will cause a great deal of economic damage to the EU as well as the UK.

That said, Donald Tusk did implore the UK not to "waste the time" given by the last extension, which was longer than some wanted and resisted by Macron, in particular. So ATinNM is correct to warn another extension is not inevitable.

It all depends whether the EU Council feels that progress is being made in resolving the political impasse in the UK, and my Diary makes the case that progress is being made and could result in a final decision one way or the other within 6 months.

I suggest it would be in the interests of the EU to let that process run its course unless Boris Johnson remains in control and continues in his attempts to bully and denigrate the EU. If nothing else, Brexit must be providing endless amusement in EU Capitals and provides a cautionary tale for any and all others who might seek to go there...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 05:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You said that six months ago and the year preceding. Has nothing changed to UK, EU relations?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 09:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Remarkably little has changed since Theresa May agreed the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU in November 2018. No serious EU/UK negotiations have taken place since, and the UK parliament has been unable to agree on anything except that it is against a no-deal Brexit, and now wants another A.50 extension in the absence of a Brexit deal acceptable to both parties.

While this might appear as just a stagnant impasse, we have seen a gradual disintegration of the UK political system, and particularly the Conservative party. So there is an argument for the EU to simply wait this process out by agreeing further extensions.

In Ireland the strategy may be to try and wait out the demise of the current DUP dependent Tory government in the hope that the next UK government won't have a problem with Customs controls down the Irish sea.

All in all the EU can take a Napoleonic approach: don't interrupt your enemy while they are busy making mistakes

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 10:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
no

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Sep 6th, 2019 at 12:09:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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