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The problem is that the likely Democratic candidates - Biden, Warren, Sanders are Septuagenarians and hardly likely to be inspiring to a younger electorate. Also the Democrats have a penchant for not being able to united around any one candidate. Your optimism is not widely shared amongst Democrats. Incumbency has its advantages... expect an October surprise. War on Iran, anyone?

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 04:43:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The October Surprise meme reached its Sell-By date a long, long, time ago.

This is in danger of highjacking your diary so I shut-up now.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 05:10:36 PM EST
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Motion to call witnesses to the senate impeachment trial defeated, 49-51 NAYE. Recessed immediately, subject to the call of the chair (McConnell).

Senate majority is pretty sure of itself going into election 2020, with or without Trump.

Be that as it may or not, the "opposition" party's greatest problem remains control of the senate. Sanders' cross-over appeal into "suburban women" faction must emerge after Super Tuesday and his nomination be blessed by DNC, which seems to be doing everything in its power to sabotage it or at least disguise the superdelegates' convention ballots. In which case, 4 more years of "suburban women" backbiting over lunch will eclipse Trump's re-election

by Cat on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 11:08:02 PM EST
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Looks like the impeachment goes nowhere, so no wagging the dog.

The incumbency of Trump brings along optimism and arrogance before the election ... no war with Iran, Trump's campaign promise to end all ME wars.

I hope for a Carter moment, always tough to win a 2nd term against all odds, losing the female vote.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 05:14:19 PM EST
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The last two Presidents to fail in a re-election bid - Carter and Bush snr.-  both failed because the economy failed (and a third candidate split the Republican vote in the case of Bush).

The chances of the economy cratering sufficiently between now and November are probably low. The Dems best chance of winning if another Republican (Romney?) splits the Republican vote again.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 06:23:45 PM EST
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"Biden, Warren, Sanders are Septuagenarians and hardly likely to be inspiring to a younger electorate."

I think this is an incorrect interpretation of what is going on. The democratic youth vote is strongly in the Sanders camp. Warren is impressive on the "has well figured out plans" and "plays well with others" metrics, and is a Baby Boomer.

The big problem is Biden. If he is nominated, the youth vote will stick with Bernie and it will be 2000, 2004, and 2016 all over again. Unfortunately, the DNC is captured by the Biden/Clinton camp.

by asdf on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 01:03:51 AM EST
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Bernie is the only leftist running, so he's quite popular with young voters. Until AOC's generation starts running (maybe even next cycle) he's the only one running what amounts to an inspirational campaign. We don't have any charismatic orators on the left, and I don't think there are any on the right either.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 11:45:13 PM EST
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