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It must be more than a little disconcerting, given the position in which Ireland finds itself, to find so little effective response by the EU to the flagrant violations of treaties and international law by the UK.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 3rd, 2020 at 02:47:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're used to being the less powerful partner in the relationship and having to suck up blatant injustices simply because we have no power to right them. But we are also very well aware that the law should be there to protect the weak and when the powerful can break the law with impunity, it puts the whole system in disgrace.

Part of me feels the EU is responding so mildly because they just can't bring themselves to take Boris and his threats very seriously. Part of me feels the EU doesn't quite appreciate how much the EU is undermining the EU's whole raison d'etre and system of legitimacy. This still has the potential to go pear shaped in a big way unless clear and decisive action is taken.

For Ireland, 50% WTO tariffs on our beef and agricultural products puts the whole industry (and rural Ireland) in jeopardy. I do hope someone, somewhere, has a plan to deal with the fall-out, but I'm not seeing much evidence of it. After all it shouldn't be too difficult to model the economic effects of WTO rules and develop a counter-strategy.

So while I appreciate the tactical reasons for the EU's response, I'm not quite sure what the strategy is.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 3rd, 2020 at 10:06:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think EU had a strategy beyond offering UK a deal as close to the original membership as possible and hoping they would come around to understanding it's the only workable solution and the only one on offer.

EU may have suspected Mr. Johnson to negotiate in bad faith, or come up with every possible kind of shenanigans, but there's not much a consensus based organization of 27 members can do against a charlatan who insists on playing chess on a backgammon board while making up rules on the fly.

Pretty much the only thing Commission can do at the moment is to try to salvage the Good Friday Agreement. Sticking to legal issues and releasing the legions of lawyers is their only tool for now.

Maybe, if the 27 came up with short and long term strategies they could agree upon, and nominated a Commissar of Brexit to implement it in close co-operation with Ireland and Netherlands the EU response could be more pro-active and on a wider spectrum.

Maybe even a parliament with some simile of power in actual running of the EU could have an effect here, too.

by pelgus on Sat Oct 3rd, 2020 at 12:43:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My guess is that the EU will allow reality to intrude on the UK's intransigance.
If the UK crashes out with no deal, then it immediately imperils the GFA. No US Cogress controlled by the Democrats is gonna look kindly upon that situation.
And that puts the UK in a hard place every which way. No deal with the EU, no deal with the US and a deteriorating relationship with China.
There aren't really too many other places to go that replace all that trade. Which means that everything is going to start getting expensive on January 1st. JIT delivery schedules are going to crash. Hard. Bringing perishables into the UK is going to be difficult moving towards impossible.
Sterling is going to tank as both the City trade and import/export businesses collapse.
All of which is going to drive up costs in a sub-Weimar way.
I imagine that, unless boris has a cunning plan, he (or his successor, will crawl to Brussels on their bellies sometime in May.
By june there will be nobody left in the country who will admit to having supported brexit, but will be detectable for their red-faced apoplexy that the EU won't immediately have us back

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Oct 3rd, 2020 at 01:45:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By june there will be nobody left in the country who will admit to having supported brexit, but will be detectable for their red-faced apoplexy that the EU won't immediately have us back

The brexiters rhetoric is quickly moving to the EU wanting to impose a new Continental Blockade. And folks will take it: after all, blaming Johnny Foreigner is always easier than admitting you've been taken in for a ride by a bunch of clueless toffs.
by Bernard on Sun Oct 4th, 2020 at 02:02:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By june there will be nobody left in the country who will admit to having supported brexit,

Nonsense. Brexit is done and was a great success. Then the EU started an entirely unprovoked trade war. No reasoning with those continentals.

by generic on Sun Oct 4th, 2020 at 03:00:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL!
by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Oct 4th, 2020 at 10:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Part of me feels the EU is responding so mildly because they just can't bring themselves to take Boris and his threats very seriously. Part of me feels the EU doesn't quite appreciate how much the EU is undermining the EU's whole raison d'etre and system of legitimacy. This still has the potential to go pear shaped in a big way unless clear and decisive action is taken.

As I explained elsewhere, the EU cannot do anything other than "going by the book"; and that means starting infringement proceedings at the CJEU and also continuing the negotiations with the UK - certainly not giving B.Johnson an excuse for putting all the blame of a no-deal on the EU breaking the negotiations before the end of the year.

As Barnier puts it:

This said, the lack of audible noise from the EU officials and member countries does not mean they are not preparing for a no-deal come January 1. I even suspect that many EU countries preparedness plans are more advanced than the UK's "administration". Showing any hint of WTO or punitive tarifs on UK exports next year will only help the Brexiters as casting the EU even further into the villain's role. Even though everybody should be well aware that's exactly what will happen in three month's time.

by Bernard on Sun Oct 4th, 2020 at 01:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And speaking of what will happen in case of no deal, Politico.eu tried to have a stab at it:

What happens if there's no Brexit trade deal?

Tariffs

How bad could it be? 💥💥💥💥💥


What happens immediately?

  • Free trade between the EU and U.K. ends on January 1, 2021 -- and both sides fall back on World Trade Organization terms. The U.K. has set out its Global Tariff Schedule for imports from the EU (as well as all other nations it has no trade deal with) and would be subject to the EU Common External Tariff for exports to the EU.

  • The administrative burden of tariffs, in addition to new customs checks, risks having an impact on food supplies -- in particular those heading to the EU, because firms importing goods to Britain will be able to defer tariff payments and some customs administration for the first six months.

  • The additional costs of tariffs and delays will likely create problems for companies, supply chains and retailers in almost every sector of the economy.

  • Prices in shops will inevitably rise as a result, and some businesses could go bust.

  • by Bernard on Mon Oct 5th, 2020 at 08:24:50 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    ???
    " importing goods to Britain"
    Do you mean "importing goods from Britain" or "exporting goods from Britain" ?
    by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:53:28 PM EST
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    That particular section was written by a UK based Politico journalist (as opposed to their Brussels based staff). As a non-native speaker myself, I take it to mean businesses that import goods from the EU into the UK - but I may be wrong.
    by Bernard on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:02:14 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

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