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"agreement to any new deal dependent on a change to the status of Gibraltar"

Seems more likely that Gib will be cut loose in about 3 months. A few days of nobody crossing in from Spain will destroy the economy there, and England will have way too many other problems to even notice.

Also the Falkland Islands. Recall that on Thatcher's watch, the Navy could still project a reasonable amount of sea power. Argentina will be all over it.

by asdf on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 09:21:50 PM EST
In my scenario the EU won't have closed any borders, merely charged a 20% importation tax on all UK produce. The problem for Gibraltarians will be that their Sterling has lost a lot of purchasing power, although many may not notice if they are earning Euros in Spain.

I'm not actually hypothesising that the EU does anything very extreme or unreasonable. The 20% tariff on UK exports will be to prevent UK exporters gaining an advantage through Sterling devaluation, and to fund measure to protect EU exporters to the UK form the effects of UK tariffs and the reduced value of Sterling.

Otherwise all is sweetness and light. Smiles as Britons cross the border into the EU unhindered. An efficient online documentation barcode enabled system to process incoming goods and collect tariffs due. UK exports don't add much more than 5-10% to imports from the rest of the world in any case, so the systems are already in place and require only marginal upgrade.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 11:52:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Britons can cross the border into Spain unhindered, how does the EU stop them from flying to Gibraltar and then wandering into France/Portugal/Germany/etc.?
by asdf on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 09:46:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would it want to - absent Covid restrictions? I'm not hypothesising any closed borders, just a tariff on goods and checks to ensure they meet EU standards. It's a trade war I'm suggesting may happen: tourism and travel can continue as is, except that Britons will have to queue in the non-EU queue at passport control.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 10:37:53 PM EST
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