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Agree with almost all you say except Georgia. Only the Special Senate election there is a "jungle primary with lots of candidates. This will likely lead to a run-off election in January which could have very low turnout and so much depends on which side is better motivated to vote. Could go Dem if Trump is still trying to hold on to power.

The other election is a standard election basically between Ossoff (Dem) and Perdue (GOP, incumbant) with most aggregators giving Perdue a slight edge although Quinnipiac University recently had Ossoff +6.

I would have both elections in the toss-up category but the problem with Dems winning elections in conservative states like this is that they then vote so conservatively, they might as well be Republicans. You need a candidate who's happy to do the job properly for 6 years and not to concerned with re-election after that. Otherwise the evangelicals and money men have you by the balls.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:08:59 PM EST
Georgia: it's inching away from the "hick Evangelical bigot state" of its neighbors. Especially around metro Atlanta with a lot of "tech" industry and the demographic changes that come with it, like a increasingly large Asian population. Some areas North of Atlanta are looking more like the Bay area (without the Bay and with few mountains).

OK, it's just metro Atlanta, but this is still a sizable proportion of GA population.

by Bernard on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:23:33 PM EST
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There has been a general population movement from northern states to the sun belt (partly due to the availability of air conditioning and mosquito control) with many high tech industries moving there to take advantage of lower labour and other costs. The growth of Latino/Hispanic and other minority populations has also increased diversity, especially in more urban and suburban areas. I sometimes get the impression the deep south is changing more than the mid west bible and rust beltsM

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:41:23 PM EST
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Metro ATL is about half the state population.  It's not the comically large share that (say) Vegas is in Nevada, but it's quite large as a share.

It also has far fewer non-college whites than a lot of southern states, and it's much more urban/suburban.

The real story, if there winds up being one, will probably be Biden eating into the northern suburbs (Gwinnett County, Cobb County, etc).  It's the "college-educated white people -- especially women -- don't like Trump" story.  Clinton carried those counties pretty narrowly.  Stacey Abrams then won them soundly.  I figure Biden's got to hit about 60% in Gwinnett to have a real shot.

Again, that's all a big if.  Gun to my head, I'd still probably bet on Trump holding on to it, but it should be pretty close.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:06:59 PM EST
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Democrats have traditionally raised most of their campaign money from out of state. As Fritz Hollings, former Democratic Senator from South Carolina said: "There is no money for a Democrat in South Carolina." California to the rescue. Jamie Harraison, Black Democratic challenger to Lindsey Graham, set a record for funds raised recently. Most came from out of state contributions.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 01:40:37 AM EST
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