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I think that the meaning the author meant to convey is that the margins of error would have to be tighter, i.e. one half of existing MOEs.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:01:38 PM EST
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How so?

If polls are less certain then their real margin of error is larger. For example, if TheHill/Harris has Biden at 49 plusminus 2 percent with 95% certainty, then in reality it is closer to 49 plusminus 4 percent with 95% certainty. Or did you mean the other way around, that to get to 49 plusminus 2 percent with 95% certainty they have to increase paricipants until they are at plusminus 1 percent?

by fjallstrom on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 08:35:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For polls to be 95% certain the margins of error would have to be tighter than they are if there is only an 80% certainty. The way it is stated in the article is ambiguous, IMO.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 03:59:02 PM EST
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