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For those of you who don't know Nevada, the basic rule is: "Nevada polling is usually garbage and you should just follow Jon Ralston's early voting blog."

Ralston's a longtime reporter and analyst in Vegas and basically just counts up the ballots received over the two-week early voting period and projects off those.

Trump's been trying to make a play there, which never made much sense to me given the polling in other states in the Southwest.  (If Trump's losing Arizona...well, Nevada is basically just a more Democratic Arizona.)

And, indeed, it doesn't seem to make sense, because the Dems seem to be on track to win pretty handily.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 11:41:19 AM EST
Note that projecting like that historically really only works in Nevada among the swing states, where turnout habits, regional margins and registrations fit very neatly.  As opposed to (say) Florida, which is always close obviously, but where these things are much less predictable.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 11:45:50 AM EST
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They were talking about winning New Mexico and that wasn't going to happen.

My guess: somebodies are grifting the grifter and making a butt load of money off billing top dollar to the campaign and buying in low cost media markets

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 05:54:21 PM EST
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