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I see two possible scenarios for election night:

  1. Biden/Harris take Florida or Texas (or both). These states report results on the day, and Trump can not win without them. That will kill the race there. Even if Trump does not concede immediately the party is likely to desert him.

  2. Trump/Pence take Florida and Texas. As most rust belt states won't be able to report results on election night, no clear winner emerges. Most likely Trump declares himself victor and later contests elections in key states with Republican legislatures. A botched election and an uncertain future, with various personality claiming the Presidency.  

A question mark remains on how the election day will go. Trump and Murdock have summoned their militias to "patrol" electoral venues. But with current early voting numbers, it might well be that only Republican voters are left on the 3rd. Unrest in key states is likely to conduce to scenario 2.  

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 04:45:47 PM EST
Republicans are already in a panic the post-Trump era won't start until Donald dies.  Trump can make a lot of easy money off of #MAGA and QAnon idiots and he's never been one to refuse those opportunities.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 05:57:14 PM EST
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Like Jarod Kushner told Bob Woodward: the Republican party has been hit by an hostile take-over. If he manages to avoid jail, Jarod is himself the best candidate to take on the torch from Donald senior. Personalities like John Kaisich or Marco Rubio could be away from the GOP frontlines for decades.

That is assuming the US political systems survives as is. Trump might just be the necessary shock to prompt the US from the decrepitude of today into a modern democracy.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 07:09:02 PM EST
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Trump and his circle are desperate: he must win this election by any means necessary, and he won't be encumbered by legality - never been, never will. We can expect truly anything, especially illegal. Same for his cabinet and advisers. The only question is how far the Senate GOP and the different Republican held swing states (+ SCOTUS) are willing to go to disregard the votes.

Scarily enough, there is no clear answer to this question at this point.

Luis: Trump might just be the necessary shock to prompt the US from the decrepitude of today into a modern democracy.

... or into a white minority ruled post-democracy failed state with a more or less open civil war. I agree this sounds extreme, but nearly enough for comfort.

by Bernard on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 01:22:43 PM EST
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