Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Which headline and what substance of methodology used in Election 2020.

Always surprises and corrections needed ... given definition of "likely voters" ... hopefully a surge of young voters for Biden to offset any numbers of "shy" Trump voters. After Trump is fired, I expect these Red capped nationalist Americans return in hiding.

New Monmouth poll shows Biden with 5-point lead over Trump in Pa.

"In a low turnout scenario, Biden's lead shrinks to 5 points, 50 to 45. The September poll found Biden leading by 8 points in the low turnout scenario among likely voters. The previous poll was conducted shortly after the first presidential debate."

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 12:34:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But this election is hardly shaping up to be a 'low turnout election'. Quite the opposite to date. Election day seems likely to be a fine fall day throughout the USA.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 02:59:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
% ballots returned ("turnout") depends on total number of registered voters, doesn't it? What is that number?
by Cat on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Short Answer:  we don't know.

21 states have established Same Day registration, meaning a person can register and vote on election day.

Given the total weirdness of this election I wouldn't want to hazard a guess at the final number.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But that makes it less predictable in my analysis ... it's not a minor deviation, but quite substantial. 😄. In many elections of populist candidates, the large turnout is often due to fanatic supporters who never ever bothered to vote in an election because of all sorts of conspiracies. Geert Wilders got elected by Dutch football (soccer) hooligans who also rioted in the capital The Hague and are massively opposed to wearing masks and certainly not abiding by health regulations.

I never have seen a poll prediction by turnout of plus 15% ⭕️🌪

by Oui on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 03:10:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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