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Things are happening quickly. In the last 3 hours:

  •  A RW propaganda outfit The Hill reported seniors, the GOP's biggest supporting demographic, are now +27 for Biden.  If anywhere close to accurate it presages a Blue Tsunami with the Dems possibly talking 5, 6, or even more Senate seats

  •  The Boston Herald reported:

In two days of polling before Trump got COVID, the president trailed  Biden by just a 46%-41% margin. In the three days of polling after the  coronavirus diagnosis, Biden held a 55%-34% lead. That means Biden's  lead grew by a whopping 16 points from pre-COVID to post-COVID.

Among all the 1,003 registered, likely voters in the nationwide Franklin  Pierce-Herald poll, Biden now holds a 51%-37% lead over Trump less than  a month before Election Day. Three percent support a third party candidate while 8% say they are still undecided.

  •  CNN reporting Trump has pulled ad spending in the two very close battleground states Iowa and Ohio.  The latter is an absolute Must Win for him to be re-elected.  Word is he thinks he's got Ohio.  

  •  Trump told the GOP to stop negotiating on a $2 Trillion stimulus package that even the morons at the Fed think is needed.

What with all else, I think it is safe to say Biden will be elected, the Democrats will hold and maybe extend their majority in the House, and the odds of the Dems flipping control of the Senate are increasing by leaps and bounds.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 6th, 2020 at 10:26:28 PM EST
I have a sneaking suspicion that Trump may have left hospital a little early, and that the cocktail of drugs he is taking (some experimental) may be masking or delaying the onset of more severe Covid-19 symptoms. Were he to suffer a severe relapse, one even his doctors couldn't hide, then his numbers, and that of many Republicans could go into free-fall.

Even an extension of the mini-epidemic amongst White House staff and Republican senators could be severely damaging, potentially caused by Trumps own reluctance to wear a mask. For a confirmed germophobe, Trump is being remarkably generous with his own bugs. The next debate could be the acid test. Has he really fully recovered and is he really going to tell Americans not to worry about the virus?

That should go down well with seniors...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 6th, 2020 at 10:43:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regeneron (REGN-COV2) --"compassionate use"
reference Regeneron's REGN-COV2 Antibody Cocktail Reduced Viral Levels and Improved Symptoms in Non-Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients, Sep 2020
archived Tue Mar 3rd, 2020, Fri Feb 7th, 2020, Tue Apr 7th, 2020

Gilead (Remdesivir, USAMRIID GS-5734) --"compassionate use" 5- or 10-day floor wax course
archived Sun Feb 16th, 2020, Mon May 4th, 2020, Mon May 18th, 2020, Sat May 23rd, 2020

dexamethasone --common corticosteroid, brand- and generic-names
reference: medlineplus.gov

Trump's antibody drug out of reach for all but 'rare' cases, Or a Weekend at Bernie's

The president's praise for Regeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment and apparently improved health are expected to drive demand
[...]
dexamethasone, an old and widely available steroid, which costs $10 to $20 for 30 tablets
The thrust of US print and cable telly expert "telemedicine" coverage since Thursday last has wavered between praise of "cutting-edge" health care and overweening attention to "transparent" disclosure of DJT's vital signs, leaving the masses of social media spectators either to resent needless deaths or vindicate COVID-19 "hoax" (still d/b/a "China flu).  
by Cat on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 03:38:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seemed to me that the race was frozen in place from the conventions until the first debate. Biden had a slight, precarious lead of a few points both in the overall popular vote and in battleground states. It was hard to tell if the difference was within the margin of error.

That changed after Trump's disastrous performance in the first debate and his subsequent hospitalization for COVID, although this did not become at all clear until yesterday, October 6. The debate and the hospitalization were two quick blows to Trump's reelection chances and they seem likely, at this point, to also secure the Senate for the Democrats.

But four weeks remains an eternity. Who knows what will happen between now and November 3, or, indeed, after November 3, even if Biden wins the election going away?

Interesting times indeed.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 05:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think his lead was slight or precarious.  Biden's basically ranged from "winning soundly if unspectacularly" to "completely beating Trump's ass" since...basically 2017 aside from a brief period post-impeachment/initial rally-round on Covid.

The lead wasn't really entirely comfortable, of course, in that I think we have reason to believe WI and PA are leaning a couple points more Republican than the country as a whole.  (Michigan all year seems to have snapped-back to being around the national polls.)

But Biden has basically led by at minimum a decent margin the whole way.

The disaster, if there is one and it isn't just a function of non-response bias, seems to be Trump's Covid diagnosis and subsequent behavior. The immediate post-debate polling showed a pretty modest bump for Unc (maybe a point or so).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If your candidate is within or close to the margin of error in large, important battleground states that is certainly a concern. And that was the case with Biden for most of the summer in PA, MI and WI. Whether it is precarious is a matter of semantics. If he is beyond the margin of error it is easier to relax.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:36:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So long as the focus was on replacing RBG on the supreme court, Trump was winning because the the Supreme court is a big concern for Republicans and reminds them of why they tolerate Trump in the first place. His nomination of Amy Comey Barrett also seems to have pleased conservatives no end.

And then the focus switched to his debate performance and then to his illness. Post debate bounces are often temporary, but this one was copper-fastened by his illness and the return of almost 100% focus on the pandemic - a strong issue for voters and Democrats.

It has also moved the focus away from the economy, which is a strong issue for Republicans and the only major issue on which Trump regularly outscores Biden. Silver has an article up querying why Trump has stopped negotiations on Stimulus - it helped his numbers big time last time.  No doubt he will try to bribe voters again with a personalised cheque...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 07:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not all about what Trump does. Recently Biden's ads have had less about "I'm not Trump/Orange man bad" and more about health care, education, wages and jobs.

You know, the stuff that the voters are actually interested in because they lack all of those.

Everyone knows Biden is never going to deliver any (people are not corporations), but at least his campaign is finally making the motions of giving an excuse for people left of Reagan to hold their nose and vote Biden.

by pelgus on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 08:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So long as the focus was on replacing RBG on the supreme court, Trump was winning because the the Supreme court is a big concern for Republicans and reminds them of why they tolerate Trump in the first place. His nomination of Amy Comey Barrett also seems to have pleased conservatives no end.

And then the focus switched to his debate performance and then to his illness.

No.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:06:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Disregarding all polls, Donnie did a bio-terrorism on his donors and is dying of just-the-flu. Can't imagine that's good for his prospects.
by generic on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 09:21:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In particular with his macho-man image, getting ill is bad, getting ill from a virus he his downplayed is even worse. Hence the posturing as not that ill. Which in turn works poorly when he has to go to the hospital and is quite clearly ill.

A politician with a more humble image might get a sympathy vote from getting ill. Norwegian PM Bondevik had a depressive period and on sick leave while being PM in late 90ies and if anything it appears to have strenghtened him politically.

by fjallstrom on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:43:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 01:38:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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