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Extreme voting lines expose where Georgia primary failed | AJC - July 28, 2020 |

by Oui on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 06:03:27 AM EST
Incompetence is a quality much prized in the deep South.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 03:10:05 PM EST
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Not doing anything to make the voting system work is an easy way to suppress voting
by asdf on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 09:48:35 PM EST
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Perhaps Azerbaijan will be a perfect hangout for Trump ?

by Oui on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:11:01 AM EST
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with creditors chasing him for $400Million in debts...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 12:51:12 PM EST
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Now he REALLY regrets not having built a Moscow Trump Tower. How long would extradition take in Ireland or Scotland? Since Scotland is still part of the UK he might be held in The Tower of London while awaiting adjudication of his extradition claim. Boris and his fellow Tories would do all they could to help.

So maybe he would end up at Trump Tower Istanbul. Ergogan could be even more helpful - or not.

Damn all these extradition treaties!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 01:41:51 PM EST
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Probably not. I didn't read the Yella Cake story about The Tax filings, but secondary commentary left with me the distinct impression, Yella Cake offered no distinction between personal (DJT) and corporate (The Trump Organiztion) obligations--not to mention tax avoidance and evasion.

As implied even in this thread, $400M likely represents mortgage balance of TTO RE portfolio. This amount is a negligible proportion of total liability (imputed debt service notwithstanding) against total assets value (disputed by Michael Cohen) by comparison to similarly situated publicly-traded or privately-held transnational RE firms. Take Cushman & Wakefield for example, formerly run by PE groups: 2019 10-K position -- total liabilities $5.8B, total debt $2.6B, total assets $7.1B.

Which goes to show, yet again, the prurient appetites of the US American public for displays of moral turpitude (eg. losses, treason, sexual deviance) instead of reckoning with the principles of moral rectitude (eg. equity, profit, capital accumulation) they supposedly admire and innocently emulate.

It would be satisfying to me, if this belated PROBE led by SDNY concluded with an indictment of either DJT or TTO or the bookkeepers, but I'm sure now more than ever this was never the objective. Too many jobs in www organized crime hang in the balance.

by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 02:31:12 PM EST
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by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 01:44:55 PM EST
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Trump doesn't quality except perhaps in an outpost settlement  ...

Haven for Jewish billionaires, not losers

by Oui on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 02:24:50 PM EST
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He could convert to Judaism, get citizenship, and then run for Parliament, thus getting immunity from extradition.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 08:50:33 PM EST
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Good.  Maybe that means he won't go home to Mar-a-Lago or -- worse -- his Jupiter golf club and fuck up all the traffic when we go down to see our families for the holidays.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 03:00:59 PM EST
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He'll have to pick a place with no extradition law and no masking laws (so on second thought, Israel isn't a good idea.)
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 09:02:05 PM EST
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This leaves Kazakhstan, obviously:

by Bernard on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 08:35:29 PM EST
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got nothing to do with long lines. The correct answer is necessity, as always.

Let's not forget, m'k: GA had been one of nine (9) states permanently subjected to VRA sec. 5 until 2013 Shelby ruling (jurisdictions). The state has been a civil rights sewer despite concerted "expert" opinions to veil SOP, crushing its conspicuous black constituency, with DNC iconography --Abrams (2018 loss), Lewis (2020 memorial), and a laissez faire remedy (J. Lewis Voting Rights ASSvancement Act, 2020) -- or "blame the victims" purported low turnout, or Magical Margin of Error (MOE) statistical "calculation".

I warned all intoxicated by poll smoke. The uniparty has one play, many tactics, to simulate electoral enfranchisement d/b/a "majoritarian rule" a/k/a "representative democracy" d/b/a "racial equity".

I'm warning you now: This time the bottom, or "base", has truly fallen out of the symbolic pyramid scheme. Assumed predictability of black and latino voters' party preference won't guarantee the POTUS mandate that national committees seek. Under the radar, since 2016 schisms in both parties, under-40s ideological agitation has effectively decapitated party line and party re-alignment. "Popular vote" pragmatism has moved to "down-ballot" correction. In short, electing not to vote on POTUS nominees at the polls.

NB. This year DNC TWICE lost a suit to "restore" mechanical "straight-ticket" ballot design in TX.

Empirically, one would expect significant proportional discrepancies in ballot shares by office, even with reported increase in total ballots cast. OTOH, "experts" are unlikely to produce such detailed analysis, preferring instead to maintain rationales for cyclical "voter participation".

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 02:56:48 PM EST
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Unlike most pundits, I remain sceptical of a presumed Biden Win. Biden is still doing less well against Trump than Hillary did at the same stage in the race in key swing states.  I got burned with Hillary, not gonna happen again.

That said, do you really believe 4 more years of Trump will be better for minorities than even a tired Biden? I personally think Trump will really go insane in a second term. We ain't seen nothing yet...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 03:32:54 PM EST
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I'm unconvinced of the statistical value of averaging the battleground states. Trump needs a clean sweep in all of them to win, and it's hard to assess the chances of that without breaking them out individually.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 04:32:28 PM EST
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Well, he needs three of four out of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsyltucky and Florida on the assumption nothing weird happens in which he loses, like, North Carolina while winning PA or something.

But yeah, the battleground average doesn't make much sense.  Biden's up 6+ in enough states to get above 270, last I looked.

Biden's closing to winning Alaska right now than Trump is to winning Wisconsin.  And about as close to winning South Carolina.

Right now, it simply isn't very close in the polling.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:21:51 PM EST
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Bah "closer to winning Alaska," not "closing" of course, but you get my point.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:23:38 PM EST
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My only point is that Hillary was +6 or more in those states as well 17 days out. Her vote then nosedived because of Comey, whereas it is difficult to see the same happening to Biden bar a senior moment or two in the debates. All I'm saying is it's not baked in the cake yet. Half baked, maybe.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 11:16:42 PM EST
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"do you really believe 4 more years of Trump will be better for minorities"

No.

Do I expect 4 more years of Biden admin to improve the welfare of [INSERT ETHNIC MINORITY GROUP]?

No.

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 06:07:13 PM EST
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It might encourage cops to kill them in slightly lower numbers...


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 06:20:03 PM EST
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doubtful to judge by lip service paid, in the past 3 months, by sundry MD general assembly "work group" and "task force" hearings of complaints against the state's Law Enforcement Officers' Bill of Rights (LEOBR)--a military commissions act of 2006, if you will, adopted by the states listed.

First, MD's legislature is not in session; delegates have been hiding at home since March 18, 2020, and chambers' leaders refused to call a "special session" to over-ride Mag-lev destruction of 2020 civic, fiscal, PH, and environmental acts; the Dem super-majority "holding their powder" for the next regular 90-day session? Or Mag-lev's last day in 2022.

Second, talk about turkeys and slugs! In the interest of "transparency," one might suppose, these committees exercised their gall by broadcasting their inane deliberations.

MD delegates are reluctant to recommend repeal of the statute which indemnifies and rewards LEOs' "misconduct" despite passionate advocacy of "minority" witnesses to bind LEO "willful" or "reckless" injuries to suspects to existing criminal code. Rather, hours of consensus are crystallizing around "reform" in the statute that preserves low standards in lawful use of [INSERT ADVERB] force, LEO union adjudication in K12 schools [!] and municipalities, and deferential badge penalties as more turgid diction.

To be sure, Baltimore, whose city council authority doesn't supercede police department autonomy granted by Annapolis, will suffer unique adversity derived from the suburban counties' indifference.

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 09:37:33 PM EST
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Press POTUS 2024 moderate candidate popularity contest developing ...

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 09:45:07 PM EST
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by Cat on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 03:58:09 PM EST
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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:47:02 PM EST
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Although it's been an exhausting coronavirus PANDEMIC thus far, and, ahem, I've been informed that I have no right to be read, I have several times mentioned Maryland Gov. Larry "Mag-lev" Hogan's local and national significance in the dissemination of "best practices" in chaotic public policy and PPE wholesale privateering in my dispatches from the Chesapeake "purple state":

As Washington Post moderate-republic poster child, as chairperson of the nga.org with rival Andrew Cuomo, as Pence-surrogate and Reagan-law'n'order stooge, as surreptitiously declared candidate for POTUS, succeeding Biden/Harris.

Kamala?! is no Truman; she's not even a Gerald Ford.

ubn warned. Campaign 2024 begins Sep 28, 2021. Please make a note of it.

by Cat on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:36:12 PM EST
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Thanks. I still haven't figured out his relevance to the 2020 election as he is term limited and won't be running for governor again. But now doubt I am missing something profound in your subtle and limpid prose!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:56:06 PM EST
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2020 is done.
by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:09:08 AM EST
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The whole point of my new diary is that 2020 is not done yet and any number of outcomes are still possible.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 01:06:11 AM EST
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Did I never share my short-lived experience as a campaign volunteer in 2006? welll, see it all started with an ad with the wind of FIVE HUNDRED uni students at his back ...
by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 06:41:08 PM EST
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by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 12:47:13 AM EST
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Trump won in 2016 by keeping the Republican coalition together and bringing in 2,000,000 new voters who wouldn't have passed the Likely Voter polling screens.  Trump won by ~80,000 votes in just the right places.

Trump has fractured the Republican coalition.  White suburban women left to vote for the Democrats in 2018 and there's no indication they are returning.

While it is possible he could bring in 2,000,000 new voters it is equally likely Biden will bring in 2,000,000 new voters as well.  The latter is much more likely than the former.

It is hard to keep in mind polling is descriptive of the time the polling took place not predictive of the future.  When asymmetrical shocks, like 2,000,000 unexpected voters showing up, happen things get a wee bit weird.  And, in fact, the national polling was fairly accurate.  Clinton when in with about a 2 percent lead and she won the popular voter by around 2 percent.  She didn't win because the US has an archaic election system designed for slave owners and when the horse was the fastest land transportation.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 06:45:03 PM EST
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