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Unlike most pundits, I remain sceptical of a presumed Biden Win. Biden is still doing less well against Trump than Hillary did at the same stage in the race in key swing states.  I got burned with Hillary, not gonna happen again.

That said, do you really believe 4 more years of Trump will be better for minorities than even a tired Biden? I personally think Trump will really go insane in a second term. We ain't seen nothing yet...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 03:32:54 PM EST
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I'm unconvinced of the statistical value of averaging the battleground states. Trump needs a clean sweep in all of them to win, and it's hard to assess the chances of that without breaking them out individually.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 04:32:28 PM EST
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Well, he needs three of four out of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsyltucky and Florida on the assumption nothing weird happens in which he loses, like, North Carolina while winning PA or something.

But yeah, the battleground average doesn't make much sense.  Biden's up 6+ in enough states to get above 270, last I looked.

Biden's closing to winning Alaska right now than Trump is to winning Wisconsin.  And about as close to winning South Carolina.

Right now, it simply isn't very close in the polling.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:21:51 PM EST
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Bah "closer to winning Alaska," not "closing" of course, but you get my point.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 10:23:38 PM EST
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My only point is that Hillary was +6 or more in those states as well 17 days out. Her vote then nosedived because of Comey, whereas it is difficult to see the same happening to Biden bar a senior moment or two in the debates. All I'm saying is it's not baked in the cake yet. Half baked, maybe.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 11:16:42 PM EST
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"do you really believe 4 more years of Trump will be better for minorities"

No.

Do I expect 4 more years of Biden admin to improve the welfare of [INSERT ETHNIC MINORITY GROUP]?

No.

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 06:07:13 PM EST
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It might encourage cops to kill them in slightly lower numbers...


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 06:20:03 PM EST
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doubtful to judge by lip service paid, in the past 3 months, by sundry MD general assembly "work group" and "task force" hearings of complaints against the state's Law Enforcement Officers' Bill of Rights (LEOBR)--a military commissions act of 2006, if you will, adopted by the states listed.

First, MD's legislature is not in session; delegates have been hiding at home since March 18, 2020, and chambers' leaders refused to call a "special session" to over-ride Mag-lev destruction of 2020 civic, fiscal, PH, and environmental acts; the Dem super-majority "holding their powder" for the next regular 90-day session? Or Mag-lev's last day in 2022.

Second, talk about turkeys and slugs! In the interest of "transparency," one might suppose, these committees exercised their gall by broadcasting their inane deliberations.

MD delegates are reluctant to recommend repeal of the statute which indemnifies and rewards LEOs' "misconduct" despite passionate advocacy of "minority" witnesses to bind LEO "willful" or "reckless" injuries to suspects to existing criminal code. Rather, hours of consensus are crystallizing around "reform" in the statute that preserves low standards in lawful use of [INSERT ADVERB] force, LEO union adjudication in K12 schools [!] and municipalities, and deferential badge penalties as more turgid diction.

To be sure, Baltimore, whose city council authority doesn't supercede police department autonomy granted by Annapolis, will suffer unique adversity derived from the suburban counties' indifference.

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 09:37:33 PM EST
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Press POTUS 2024 moderate candidate popularity contest developing ...

by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 09:45:07 PM EST
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by Cat on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 03:58:09 PM EST
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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:47:02 PM EST
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Although it's been an exhausting coronavirus PANDEMIC thus far, and, ahem, I've been informed that I have no right to be read, I have several times mentioned Maryland Gov. Larry "Mag-lev" Hogan's local and national significance in the dissemination of "best practices" in chaotic public policy and PPE wholesale privateering in my dispatches from the Chesapeake "purple state":

As Washington Post moderate-republic poster child, as chairperson of the nga.org with rival Andrew Cuomo, as Pence-surrogate and Reagan-law'n'order stooge, as surreptitiously declared candidate for POTUS, succeeding Biden/Harris.

Kamala?! is no Truman; she's not even a Gerald Ford.

ubn warned. Campaign 2024 begins Sep 28, 2021. Please make a note of it.

by Cat on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:36:12 PM EST
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Thanks. I still haven't figured out his relevance to the 2020 election as he is term limited and won't be running for governor again. But now doubt I am missing something profound in your subtle and limpid prose!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:56:06 PM EST
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2020 is done.
by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:09:08 AM EST
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The whole point of my new diary is that 2020 is not done yet and any number of outcomes are still possible.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 01:06:11 AM EST
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Did I never share my short-lived experience as a campaign volunteer in 2006? welll, see it all started with an ad with the wind of FIVE HUNDRED uni students at his back ...
by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 06:41:08 PM EST
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by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 12:47:13 AM EST
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Trump won in 2016 by keeping the Republican coalition together and bringing in 2,000,000 new voters who wouldn't have passed the Likely Voter polling screens.  Trump won by ~80,000 votes in just the right places.

Trump has fractured the Republican coalition.  White suburban women left to vote for the Democrats in 2018 and there's no indication they are returning.

While it is possible he could bring in 2,000,000 new voters it is equally likely Biden will bring in 2,000,000 new voters as well.  The latter is much more likely than the former.

It is hard to keep in mind polling is descriptive of the time the polling took place not predictive of the future.  When asymmetrical shocks, like 2,000,000 unexpected voters showing up, happen things get a wee bit weird.  And, in fact, the national polling was fairly accurate.  Clinton when in with about a 2 percent lead and she won the popular voter by around 2 percent.  She didn't win because the US has an archaic election system designed for slave owners and when the horse was the fastest land transportation.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 06:45:03 PM EST
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