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I don't think his lead was slight or precarious.  Biden's basically ranged from "winning soundly if unspectacularly" to "completely beating Trump's ass" since...basically 2017 aside from a brief period post-impeachment/initial rally-round on Covid.

The lead wasn't really entirely comfortable, of course, in that I think we have reason to believe WI and PA are leaning a couple points more Republican than the country as a whole.  (Michigan all year seems to have snapped-back to being around the national polls.)

But Biden has basically led by at minimum a decent margin the whole way.

The disaster, if there is one and it isn't just a function of non-response bias, seems to be Trump's Covid diagnosis and subsequent behavior. The immediate post-debate polling showed a pretty modest bump for Unc (maybe a point or so).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 7th, 2020 at 06:23:28 PM EST
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