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The premier political analyst group The Cook Report:

Republicans no longer have a realistic path to picking up the 17 seats they need for a majority. In fact, if the 25 races in our Toss Up column were to break evenly, Democrats would pick up five to six seats. Right now, the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of between five  and ten seats, with anything from no net change to a Democratic gain of 15 seats possible.

I can't think of another election cycle when a party picked up 41 seats in an election and then picked up another 5 to 10 in the next.  Certainly not in the modern era.

With the House majority safe and the Presidency as good as it can get the focus is on the Senate and there things don't look so rosy.  Cunningham, the Democratic challenger in North Carolina is in a sexting scandal and Hegar the Texas candidate just proudly announced she didn't vote for Obama in 2008 or 2012.  So two winnable seats are now very questionable (NC) and probably out of reach (Tx)

So it now looks like the Republicans will keep the Senate

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:18:20 PM EST
Alabama friends tell me that Jones has a good chance of losing. And they are supporters.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:49:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jones has always been a long shot for re-election. Tommy Tuberville is not Roy Moore. But Trump could yet pull Jones through, if he just keeps on doing what he is currently doing, which is working great - for the Democrats.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 04:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jones has a snowball in hell's chance of being re-elected.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:40:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a single recent poll has Tuberville in single digits.  All of them have him winning by 10 to 18 points.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I said it is a long shot, and Trump will have to work really hard for Jones to pull it out.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:15:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know, did y'all never watch Tuberville coach an Iron Bowl?

/snark

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 04:39:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A better candidate, like Beto, might have won in Texas. We will have to wait for more N.C. polls to tell if Cunningham's indiscretions have been fatal. He was consistently ahead for the last month by about the margin of error, so he might bounce back or the fact that Tillis is positive for COVID might turn out to be more important in the longer run, but Tillis could always have another faux pas. In any case there remain Iowa, Montana and Georgia as possible fourth seats.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:00:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It pisses me off Democrats keep nominating people who can't keep their pants zipped and Democratic candidates for high office who don't vote for the Democratic presidential nominees.  

Fuckhead in Kentucky did the same thing.  McConnell was vulnerable and the Dem candidate declared she couldn't remember who she voted for in 2008 and 2016.  Her vote collapsed and McConnell waltzed through with the results we see.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:43:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Amy McGrath was much loved by the DNC centrists.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:18:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:29:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I'd still bet on Cunningham.  The polling I've seen suggests people don't really care.  Plus, are they even going to remember it much as Trump continues running around saying crazy shit?

Hegar might be able to win if Biden wins Texas, but it's a stretch.  Kansas and South Carolina are probably both better bets.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:24:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Cunningham hangs on, then I think the Dems wind up at 51 or 52 -- winning CO/AZ/ME/NC/IA and perhaps one more of AK/KS/MT/SC/TX.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:26:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I haven't seen polling of the N.C. Senate race since the news of Cunningham's unzipped fly emerged. What have I missed?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 12:42:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A very ugly sight, no doubt. I wonder if he is deformed like Clinton.
by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 03:22:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Federal judge temporarily blocks Board of Elections settlement decided Friday, 3 Oct
The settlement extended the number of days the Board of Elections would accept mailed-in ballots to nine as long as the ballot was postmarked by 5 p.m. Nov. 3, which is Election Day.

It also allowed absentee voters without witness signatures to sign affidavits that it was their vote in order to fix the ballot.

last year, Federal judge to block latest North Carolina voter ID mandate
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1789
archived "Stamps"

by Cat on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 02:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Much speculation, no information - AFAICT

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 05:23:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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