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He could get zero votes in California, New York, Illinois, and Oregon and still win. The so-called Purple States are the only ones that count.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
100% accurate but the topic was total vote.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:30:56 PM EST
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Total vote means absolutely nothing.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 01:36:09 AM EST
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Nate Silver's model shows a non-trivial chance of Trump winning the college despite losing the popular vote by 5%.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 10:58:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
About a 2% chance if he lost the popular vote by 5+:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632


Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:23:35 AM EST
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Trump rips `FiveThirtyEight' pollster for 2020 election prediction
The pollster "FiveThirtyEight" gave Trump a 14 percent chance of winning the election and Biden a 86 percent chance, citing 40,000 simulations it ran of the November contest.

In 2016, the polling site said Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning and Trump had a 28.6 percent chance.

by Bernard on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 06:15:30 PM EST
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Use this as a guideline: 55% voter turnout means Rethuglicans win; 60% turnout means Dems win; 65% means Dems win big; 70% means Rethuglican Party is crushed.
by rifek on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 03:04:28 AM EST
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FWIW:

137,143,218 2016 total votes
131,473,705 2008 total votes
last 50 years

2008: Barack Obama v John McCain (61.65%)
  1. Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton (60.1%)
  2. George W. Bush v John Kerry (60.1%)
  3. Barack Obama v Mitt Romney (58.6%)
  4. Bill Clinton v George W. H. Bush (58.1%)
  5. Richard Nixon v George McGovern (56.2%)
  6. Ronald Reagan v Walter Mondale (55.2%)
  7. Jimmy Carter v Gerald Ford (54.8%)
  8. Ronald Reagan v Jimmy Carter (54.2%)
  9. George W. Bush v Al Gore (54.2%)
  10. George H. W. Bush v Michael Dukakis (52.8%)
  11. Bill Clinton v Bob Dole (51.7%)
Electoral college is not well understood.
by Cat on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 11:16:13 PM EST
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Over a Week Before Election, Early Voting Surpasses 2016 Level
62M, or "44% of of the total votes counted in the last presidential election". m'k.

I blame IRAN, possibly RUSSIA! or QNON. Mostly weed.

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 01:16:36 AM EST
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WA, MT, ID, NV, CA, WY, CO, UT, MN, WI, IA, IL, MI, MD, VT, DC, CT, NH, ME: 19 unrestricted
archived "exit polling"
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 01:52:29 AM EST
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