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Nate Silver's model shows a non-trivial chance of Trump winning the college despite losing the popular vote by 5%.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 10:58:10 AM EST
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About a 2% chance if he lost the popular vote by 5+:


Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:23:35 AM EST
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Trump rips `FiveThirtyEight' pollster for 2020 election prediction
The pollster "FiveThirtyEight" gave Trump a 14 percent chance of winning the election and Biden a 86 percent chance, citing 40,000 simulations it ran of the November contest.

In 2016, the polling site said Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning and Trump had a 28.6 percent chance.

by Bernard on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 06:15:30 PM EST
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