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is irrelevant to conditional franchise in place today. Since absentee voting is the rule rather than exception, periodic phone survey of votes cast rather than vote "intention" would be the more accurate estimate IF sufficient sample of registered voters polled by county.

Don't hold your breath for APsplainin their "methodology" behind ending races for every office in this GE before precincts close.  

  • Every state has established and modified qualifications (voluntarily or by court order) for absentee ballot voting. MD, eg., permits end-to-end electronic ballot fulfillment. So predictive power of mailed ballot party preference is weak.

  • Voter registration: AFAIK, at least one state VA publicized extended voter registration deadline (cockroach alert); some states permit same-day registration; no press has yet ventured comprehensive new registrations.  

  • "Early voting" by person or mail presentment differs by state.

  • Mail ballot postmark deadlines differ by state; voters in at least five states have sued to extend postmark AND count completion deadlines--up to 14 days.

  • Variance between states' absentee ballot "drop-box" collection deadlines is generally unknown.

  • States' laws to embargo completed ballot counts on or before Nov 3 is generally unknown.

Poll: About 6 in 10 voters don't expect to know who won on election night - and they're OK with that, 13 Sep
by Cat on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 02:02:16 PM EST
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