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Biden now up double digits in the 538 average, 9.4 at RealClearPolitics.

We should hit 18-19m votes in when Mike McDonald runs his midnight update.  

Hell, we might get close to 19m just on Texas given the truly bonkers numbers they're putting up.  They had fewer votes than FL in 2016, as I recall, despite the population being 50% larger.  Don't imagine that'll hold this year....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 10:06:23 PM EST
Is there a partisan breakdown of those requesting mail ballots available? Anyone polling those queueing to vote - or coming out after voting - an exit poll?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 10:43:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a partial partisan breakdown on mail ballot requests and returns at the bottom of the page here.

Dems are still returning ballots at a higher rate and are outnumbering Republicans 55.7 to 23.5 (rest being independents and minor parties).  In fact, the gap is growing on return rates.  Both have declined a bit in their overall shares as some independents' ballots have come in, which is probably not unexpected.

Not all states report by party though.  For example: Alaska just reports counts of requested and returned ballots, while North Carolina reports breakdowns by party, race, gender, age, county, etc.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 10:25:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mail voting turnout is 14.3% of the total 2016 vote so far.

Assuming the 2020 vote is similar, registered democrats vote for Biden, and registered Republicans vote for Trump, that means Dems have 8% of the vote in the bag compared to 3.3% for Republicans. Not a bad start. Assuming that Biden gets 60% of independent and small party registered voters brings the Dem total to almost 10% with Republicans on 4%.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:02:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Too many assumptions Frank ...

Toss-up Florida gets even tighter as Republicans narrow voter registration gap

Many young voters register without a party affiliation ... the turnout will be a determinant factor as always.

by Oui on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 01:33:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
is irrelevant to conditional franchise in place today. Since absentee voting is the rule rather than exception, periodic phone survey of votes cast rather than vote "intention" would be the more accurate estimate IF sufficient sample of registered voters polled by county.

Don't hold your breath for APsplainin their "methodology" behind ending races for every office in this GE before precincts close.  

  • Every state has established and modified qualifications (voluntarily or by court order) for absentee ballot voting. MD, eg., permits end-to-end electronic ballot fulfillment. So predictive power of mailed ballot party preference is weak.

  • Voter registration: AFAIK, at least one state VA publicized extended voter registration deadline (cockroach alert); some states permit same-day registration; no press has yet ventured comprehensive new registrations.  

  • "Early voting" by person or mail presentment differs by state.

  • Mail ballot postmark deadlines differ by state; voters in at least five states have sued to extend postmark AND count completion deadlines--up to 14 days.

  • Variance between states' absentee ballot "drop-box" collection deadlines is generally unknown.

  • States' laws to embargo completed ballot counts on or before Nov 3 is generally unknown.

Poll: About 6 in 10 voters don't expect to know who won on election night - and they're OK with that, 13 Sep
by Cat on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 02:02:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
case in point: Navajo Voters, 15 Oct
The Ninth Circuit ruled against six Navajo Nation members in their challenge to Arizona's deadline for the receipt of mail-in ballots. The members asked for an injunction to require the state to count ballots from tribal members that are postmarked -- rather than received -- by Election Day.
Now back track 50 states and "territories" to Aug 1 to separate "liberal" from "conservative" district courts, emergency appeals. Litigation is ongoing across the nation. The cheeto-dictator's prediction wasn't wrong, was it.

Also Sheldon Whitehouse ran off the rails for THIRTY MINUTES, Day 2 Pt-2 of the Anti-RBG hearing, carrying a "vast conspiracy," illustrating the Federalist Society's Axes of Assets in eighteen (18) 4C printed visual aids ("slides") mounted on a table easel.

Soon to be a major motion picture, The Amicus Briefs.

by Cat on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 02:56:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 03:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm aware there are lots of different regulations in different states. I was just wondering do we have anything more than anecdotal evidence of who those standing in line for hours are/have voting for. You've got to be pretty enthusiastic/committed to stand in line for so long, and I was wondering do we have evidence whether GOP or DEM voters have the greater enthusiasm to vote this cycle.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 08:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's hard to tell given that so few states publish demographic breakouts.

In NC, it looks like vote-by-mail numbers skew heavily white and Democratic, while in-person early voting is skewing more African-American but with more Republicans showing up, although the Dems are still showing up in much higher numbers.

Strangely, in Georgia, we're not really seeing that split on racial lines though.  No idea what would drive that.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Generally speaking minority precincts have much fewer voting machines than white precincts.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 01:56:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
case in point: Before Limiting Ballot Drop Boxes to One Per County, Top Ohio Election Officials Secretly Consulted Promoter of Debunked Voting Fraud Fears
Secretaries of state have wide latitude to act in ways that can make it easier or harder to vote. While most all are partisan elected officials, they are expected to carry out policies that aren't more harmful to one party than the other.
by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 03:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
case in point: In reversal, Michigan appeals court says late-arriving absentee ballots should not be counted
The Republican-controlled Legislature had appealed the September ruling by Michigan Court of Claims Judge Cynthia Stephens that said ballots postmarked before Election Day could arrive as much as 14 days late and still be counted.
[...]
It was not immediately known whether the retiree group would try to appeal to the Michigan Supreme Court.
by Cat on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 12:01:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And yeah, there will be a exit poll, but I'm personally not going to take it very seriously just given how weird this election is obviously going to be due to the split between Biden and Trump voters on mode.

Maybe it'll be fine, but I question how good that sample will be.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:00:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean an exit poll of early voters - is that legal. It would give an indication of what proportion of voters who are motivated enough to queue for hours are Biden or Trump - an in Georgia, in the two senate elections as well.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:18:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I'm sure they're polling early voters outside of precincts -- and over the phone for mail voters -- as part of the national exit poll, but they can't publish the results until the polls close on November 3rd. They'll probably have a bunch of demographic breakouts by mode.

There will be phone and online polls done asking those who've voted how they voted though before election night.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:25:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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