Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
What has been absolutely stunning is how incompetent the Trump and Boris regimes have been. Think of how much more damage they could have done if they had been even half-way competent.

Boris is being depicted as the Brexit hardliner within government. And yet he has now been backed into a corner my Biden, his own law-breaking legislation, by the EU negotiators and by the arch Brexiteers.

So how will the cornered Boris react? With one bound will he be free by caving to a deal which he will then tout as the best evah? Will anyone believe him after his about face on the Withdrawal Agreement?

And how will the EU react? I doubt he can now get any deal through parliament so why would they go out on a limb to grant him a good one? Is he now such damaged goods that they will just have to sit this negotiating window and try again after a period of no deal?

How long can Boris survive no deal? Will he leave in a huff and leave it to Gove or Sunak to clean up the mess? Will hard core Brexiteers re-group under Farage's Reform Party? They don't seem to have gotten the memo that Trump lost.

It's hard to see the EU make significant concessions while the Internal Market Bill is still live within the parliamentary process. EU leaders, too, need some distraction from their Covid 19 disaster. The scene is still set for the disaster I predicted in The 2021-2026 EU UK Trade war.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 15th, 2020 at 02:36:37 PM EST
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