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There has been a tendency everywhere to allow technical/political constraints to dictate "strategy".  In Ireland these were:

  1. Lack of testing capacity early on, particularly shortage of reagent
  2. Inability/unwillingness to close N. Ireland border
  3. Lack of quick testing facilities at ports/airports
  4. Mistaken belief that aerosol infection wasn't significant and reluctance to mandate facemasks early on because of fear people wouldn't change/dispose of them safely
  5. Need to keep "essential services" open
  6. Track and trace too slow
  7. Lockdown fatigue
  8. Hospitality and travel industry lobbying

All of these factors made a "Zero Covid" strategy difficult, and so they settled for a "manage covid within hospital and intensive care capacity" strategy instead - which has ended up being no less difficult.

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Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 18th, 2020 at 04:50:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just found this:

The Long Shadow Of The Future

The progression of the initial outbreak in different countries followed three main patterns. Countries like Singapore and Taiwan represented Pattern A, where (despite many connections to the original source of the outbreak in China) vigilant government action effectively cut off community transmission, keeping total cases and deaths low. China and South Korea represented Pattern B: an initial uncontrolled outbreak followed by draconian government interventions that succeeded in getting at least the first wave of the outbreak under control.

Pattern C is represented by countries like Italy and Iran, where waiting too long to lock down populations led to a short-term exponential growth of new cases that overwhelmed the healthcare system and resulted in a large number of deaths.

A Tale Of Two Pandemics - The Nordic response to COVID-19 reveals a dark side of consensus politics.

This tale of these two Nordic approaches to COVID-19 shows how similar countries can make dramatically different choices about how to balance the tradeoff between liberty and security. In a paradoxical way, however, the radically different approaches taken by the Swedish and Danish governments reflect a deeper underlying similarity: These are countries whose populations are among the most trusting in the world. They display an unusual confidence in the state and its institutions. Social cohesion and trust run so deep that the Swedish and Danish governments might well have swapped their very different COVID strategies and still retained public support.


Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Wed Nov 18th, 2020 at 06:35:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Social cohesion and trust run so deep that the Swedish and Danish governments might well have swapped their very different COVID strategies and still retained public support."

This is very true. Or as a friend put it: If we have experts who model these strategies, then we expect to follow those stratgies at crunch time. And if different experts come to different conclusions we expect our expert authority to come down on a strategy and then we follow that one.

by fjallstrom on Thu Nov 19th, 2020 at 02:46:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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