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Countries/states with sparser population density have a huge natural advantage (which they have not always exploited). Countries with a culture of a lot of effusive hugging and kissing on greeting and good-bye have a huge natural disadvantage. Countries with a liberal culture probably could have successful implemented a Wuhan style total lock-down.

I don't know if a Zero Covid strategy was ever going to be possible in relatively densely populated central/western Europe but it was certainly possible in Ireland last June - had not the Unionists in N. Ireland followed Boris' "strategy" instead. Now N. Ireland has twice the rate of infection and death as the south.

In general scientist and policy makers made some v. mistaken assumptions. They under-estimated how infectious the virus was, asymptomatic transmission, and transmission by aerosols. There has been almost no emphasis on ultra-low energy plasma technology which kills 99.9% of viruses in the air as part of air conditioning solutions on planes, building and enclosed spaces.

Hopefully widespread vaccination can suppress future outbreaks more successfully. But will it stop transmission? There is so much we still don't know. And every week costs a lot more lives. Best case scenario? Virus suppressed by next summer, with cross border travel only allowed with current vaccination cert.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Nov 16th, 2020 at 08:31:18 PM EST

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