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I agree with your conclusions, but some nitpicks.

  • Sweden's top epidomologists have their main experience from Ebola in Western Africa, or at least that is true for state epidemlogist Tegnell.

  • Sweden's original plan was to copy the Korean plan with track and trace. It failed early on, because of to little testing capacity. Then - mid-March - it became to decrease the spread without lockdowns - mainly by paying people to stay home. In large part it is because Sweden doesn't have legislation that really allows for a lockdown outside of war, and constitutional safeguards against fast-tracking such legislation. Such legislation is in the works but not expected until next year.

Otherwise, Sweden's experience is similar to other West European nations that was hard hit during the spring. Likely Sweden had already in mid-March a much larger spread then surrounding countries, so the Swedish strategy is better compared to France, Netherlands etc then surrounding countries. And the main difference against these other hard hit Western European countries so far is getting the second wave later, but it is clearly here now.
by fjallstrom on Mon Nov 16th, 2020 at 09:23:52 PM EST

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