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My final prediction is basically the same as what I had four or five months ago:

Biden 334
Trump 204

That's, of course, Arizona, Nebraska-2, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsyltucky, North Carolina and Florida.

I think Trump very narrowly pulls it out in Georgia, carries Texas by about 2 and wins with modest margins in Ohio and Iowa.

It looks like the popular vote margin will be wider than I was thinking back then.  I'd had it Biden +5.8 then.  Now I'm thinking it wins up being about 7.

Unlike seemingly the entire pundit class, I don't think it's going to take days, let alone weeks, to know the outcome.  I'm not sure if the election will be called by the news orgs before midnight, but I obviously think we'll have a pretty good idea.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:31:55 AM EST
I'm giving Biden all of the above plus Georgia, Texas and Ohio, but not Iowa. I know, I know - very optimistic, and always assuming all votes are counted!

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:54:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You would say that, wouldn't you? You salary doesn't depend on getting lots of people to watch your shows, which can only be done by generating a close race. This always happens, even with AOC's reelection campaign which she won with a landslide. You should stop making your predictions, and think of these poor journalists who need to make a living....

Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

Bolivia? Venezuela? You don't seem to be doing a good job of that any more.

Anyway, with the US election now so uninteresting, shall we discuss Palau? Do you think that Whipps Jr. or Oilouch will win? What are the differences, if any between them?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 08:41:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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