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My final prediction is basically the same as what I had four or five months ago:

Biden 334
Trump 204

That's, of course, Arizona, Nebraska-2, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsyltucky, North Carolina and Florida.

I think Trump very narrowly pulls it out in Georgia, carries Texas by about 2 and wins with modest margins in Ohio and Iowa.

It looks like the popular vote margin will be wider than I was thinking back then.  I'd had it Biden +5.8 then.  Now I'm thinking it wins up being about 7.

Unlike seemingly the entire pundit class, I don't think it's going to take days, let alone weeks, to know the outcome.  I'm not sure if the election will be called by the news orgs before midnight, but I obviously think we'll have a pretty good idea.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:31:55 AM EST

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